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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

2019 FANTASY BASEBALL STATUS REPORT: FRANMIL REYES OUTFIELDER SAN DIEGO PADRES

When a player hits three home runs in the last five games, the fantasy baseball world takes notice.  Whether things continue on a positive path from that point forward is entirely on the skill set of the player involved and most often a look under the statistical hood is needed to come to some clarity on this.  This is where we are at right now with San Diego Padres outfield slugger Franmil Reyes who in fact has hit 3 home runs in his last five games and who goes into Tuesday's action with the following numbers:

.222
4 HR
8 RBI
5 R
0 SB
15.1 K/9
11.3 BB/9
.171 BABIP

Perhaps most importantly in all of the numbers above is the fact that Reyes is still just 23 and since he already is an imposing power hitter, the 3-4 seasons or remaining upside point to something really positive taking place here.  Getting back to the numbers, Reyes is a power guy all the way and he showed this in spades during his 2018 rookie debut when he hit 16 home runs and drove in 31 batters in just 261 at-bats for the Padres which planted him firmly on the fantasy baseball radar.  Now Reyes did show his youth when he posted an ugly 28.1 K/9 rate but he pretty much fell in line with almost all young slugger in that area.  More impressively was that Reyes drew walks at a 8.4 BB/9 clip and that is a sign of patience/maturity that other young hitters don't always have.  Fast forward to present day and Reyes has improved both number in posting a 15.1 K/9 and 11.3 BB/9.  Yes, the .222 average remains ugly but keep in mind Reyes' .171 BABIP is incredibly unlucky and is due to regress some more to the mean.  This means the average is due to come up more than a bit and when combined with the power, make Reyes a big breakout candidate for 2019.  Again you wont find any steals here which is a minor quibble and Reyes may still struggle to hit .265 but 25-30 home runs is very much i in play if the playing time is there.  Reyes has the type of immense natural power that no ballpark can hold and so Petco Park doesn't figure to be a major deterrent either.  So given the fact the discrimination of San Diego hitters remains pervasive, it is likely Reyes is still sitting there on your league's waiver wire.  If this is the case, pick him up now before the real fun gets going.  Given the recent power spike, it might already be underway. 


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