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Monday, April 22, 2019

2019 FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: NOAH SYNDERGAARD SP NEW YORK METS

Maybe we should just do a Crisis Point on the entire starting pitcher fraternity no?  After all, the pitching dominant era of a few seasons ago is long in the rearview mirror and now we have a Home Run Derby situation enveloping the game on a nightly basis.  The result has been chaos among even the very best pitchers in baseball as top-tier names like Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Jacob DeGrom, and Noah Syndergaard have all come out of the gates with some very shoddy results.  As far as Thor is concerned, he added another clunker on Sunday by yielding 4 earned runs, 8 hits, 2 walks, and 5 K's in 5 innings in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday which has left him with the following numbers:

1-2
5.90 ERA
1.28 WHIP
.261 BAA
2.17 BB/9
0.93 HR/9
.346 BABIP
2.92 FIP
3.34 XFIP

Obviously, the surface numbers are ugly and when it comes to Syndergaard, you always have to worry about his health given how hard he throws.  We all know that if you were a betting man or woman, Syndergaard would be among your top 3 choices in terms of predicting the next Tommy John victim and he already has had multiple scares on that front.  In addition, Syndergaard tore a lat two seasons ago as well to add to the litany of health trouble.  As of right now there has been no indication Syndergaard is hurt but he clearly is struggling.  Or is he?  The real beauty with advanced metrics is that they reveal some "fluke" aspects of things and in this case, it is easy to see Thor has had some very rotten luck with the batted ball.  Right away you can take note of the unlucky .346 BABIP which means a lot of hits are falling in in an odd way.  When adjusted, Syndergaard's ERA comes out to a very Thor-like 2.92 FIP and 3.34 XFIP.  This alone should get the buy low alarms blaring.  In addition, Syndergaard's control has been very good with his 2.17 BB/9 and while the home runs have gone up, they are not terrible in terms of rate.  Finally, Syndergaard;s average fastball velocity of 98.2 has been tremendous and is right with his career norms.  So adding everything together, you get the picture Syndergaard should be able to turn it around real soon and represents a major buy low opportunity.  Trying to snipe Syndergaard away from a panicking owner would be the right thing to do here so do so quickly before that buy low window eventually starts to close. 


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