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Friday, March 15, 2019

2019 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: CARLOS CORREA SS HOUSTON ASTROS

Amazingly having turned just 24 this past September, Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa's status as a top-tier fantasy baseball talent is completely secure despite a somewhat difficult 2018 campaign caused mainly due to a lengthy DL stint for a back problem.  Missing a month-and-a-half during the summer as a result of the injury wound up causing Correa's offensive numbers to plummet since his reduced 468 at-bats came out to just 15 home runs, 65 RBI, and a very ugly .239 average.  Before going into why we remain so high on Correa off such a rough year, let's get the remaining negatives out of the way first.  One such issue concerns Correa completely applying the brakes on the running game as he has now stolen a total of just 5 bases in the last two seasons combined.  It is strange that Correa has already kicked this part of his game to the curb given his youth but perhaps injuries have caused him to re-think the risk the whole exercise brings.  Beyond the decline in steals, Correa's power has been of the good-but-not-great variety as he has yet to hit more than 24 home runs in four MLB seasons.  So while we again can go back to the youth as a reason why Correa may not have grown into his power peak just yet, it should be noted he is not in the class of Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, or Trevor Story on this front.  With all that said, Correa's present and future remain very bright as he operates toward the top of the very potent Astros order and it was only in 2017 where he batted .315 with 24 home runs and 84 RBI for the team.  As far as the average dip a year ago, Correa dealt with an unlucky .282 BABIP that was way down from .328 and .352 tallies from 2016-17 and so a rebound there seems likely.  So once you take into account the remaining upside and the likelihood Correa will have better health/batted ball luck this season, a strong case can be made of him being a decent second-round pick this spring in your draft. 
2019 PROJECTION:  .288 27 HR 88 RBI 89 R 4 SB  

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