Wednesday, February 20, 2019


The speed leaves the station at 30.  One of the more tried-and-true methods for projecting speed-oriented players in yearly fantasy baseball leagues centers on the notion that the age of 30 is when the acceleration and explosion while running begin to erode and sometimes very sharply.  Whether it was a stark case such as Marquise Grissom back in the day or Charlie Blackmon more recently, turning 30 is always a danger zone for guys who have a bunch of value tied into stolen bases.  Yet another example of such a trend appears to be taking shape in Seattle in the form of second baseman/outfielder Dee Gordon who in 2018 endured his worst year since becoming an everyday pro and who was so bad at times that he yielded the leadoff spot to Mitch Haniger.  With the Mariners having also brought in uber-speedster Mallex Smith to also contend for leadoff duties in 2019, Gordon is looking to be in major trouble in terms of prospective value going forward.

Now in terms of last season, Gordon's numbers came out as follows:

4 HR
62 R
36 RBI
30 SB
1.5 BB/9
13.6 K/9

Looking at the numbers above, the numbers were absolutely pathetic outside of steals and even there Gordon showed trouble.  For one thing, the 30 steals snapped a streak of 58 or more in three of the last four seasons and the one time he missed that mark in 2016 due to a PED suspension, Gordon likely would have gotten there.  Needless to say, the drop in steals was quite sharp and the loss of leadoff duties correlates perfectly there.  Even in terms of success rate, Gordon showed red flags as he was caught 12 times which speaks to a possible loss of explosion.  The Mariners certainly were not happy with their initial return on Gordon and the fact they pulled him from the leadoff spot bears this out fully.

As far as the rest of the numbers, they were horrific as Gordon's 1.5 BB/9 was ridiculous and the .268 average mediocre.  With absolutely no power to speak of, Gordon is almost useless when not stealing a high number of bases.  Since he is no longer a leadoff hitter, the steals won't flow naturally and so Gordon is someone you really don't want to bother with given all of the other vast negatives.  Like with Billy Hamilton the last few seasons, Gordon is now just a declining one-category pony and not worth the increasing aggravation. 

2019 PROJECTION:  .275 2 HR 34 RBI 65 R 28 SB  

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