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Monday, December 31, 2018

2019 FANTASY FOOTBALL QB POSTSCRIPT

With the 2018 fantasy football season in the books, now is the time to check in on all of the positions with a look towards 2019.  Today we begin with the QB's where the offensive numbers were truly insane and were led by 50 touchdown throws.  With most leagues correctly operating with just one QB in their starting lineups, here are some tidbits from yours truly with a look towards next season.

-First off, every single one of us will have a strong temptation to draft Mahomes in Round 1 and especially in Round 2.  The numbers were absolutely insane throughout the 2018 season and it is likely he was on more league champions than any other player (he was on the runner-up squad in our Experts League).  While the allure is there, I will suggest not going down that road as it is still a very dumb idea going QB in Round 1 or 2 when everyone else is stocking up on the supreme running backs and wideouts.  You will really be putting yourself behind the rest of your league using such a strategy and since the depth at QB is so deep in going about 14-15 players deep in terms of starting-caliber guys, it makes it double a bad choice to tab Mahomes.  Those in your league who get a Christian McCaffrey in Round 1 and then a JuJu Smith-Schuster in Round 2 can easily get a Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield, or a Carson Wentz in the middle rounds are in so much better shape than those who go Mahomes in Round 1 and then go a shaky back like a David Johnson on Round 2.  So while we all would love to have Mahomes, it still is not a good idea to go a passer early on no matter who it is. 

-Once again, I will be all over value at QB as I historically have done but I will admit to breaking my own rule this past summer when I took Aaron Rodgers at the start of Round 3.  While it was not the first two rounds, I really hurt myself in terms of not stocking up more on backs and wideouts and then sat back and saw those who took Ryan, Rivers,Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, and Jared Goff all end up with monster values.  I will not make that mistake again. 

Now in terms of 2019, guys who should come nicely priced and who could pay off significantly include once again Ryan and Rivers; not to mention Carson Wentz who is coming off a second straight season where he failed to finish the year on the field.  While Wentz' injury woes are becoming a major concerns, he remains a supremely talented passer when on the field and I will take a shot here and back him up with a Trubisky or a much more affordable Jimmy Garoppolo to be safe.

Another guy I love for 2019 in terms of upside/price if Mayfield who just set the rookie TD passing record with 27.  Mayfield has the "it" factor that will make him a stud for years and the fact the Browns already trust him to air it out is a major bonus to his value.  Sign me up. 

-Guys who will likely be past my price point next season figure to be Mahomes, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, DeShaun Watson, Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.  A few things here:  I already did a separate post about the December fades Brees has had each of the last two years and his ongoing struggles on the road now make this old favorite of mine someone I will gladly pass on.  Wilson is also concerning in that he threw at a drastically lowered rate in 2018 as the Seahawks ran the ball like in the old Marshawn Lynch days.  So while Wilson was excellent with his 35 passing scores, his margin for error was very low each week given the low amount of overall throws.  Finally, Rodgers dealt with groin and knee injuries last season and also another concussion for a guy who has had a history of them.  Rodgers is squarely on the back nine of his career now and outside of Davante Adams, is lacking in weaponry.  He has never been with more question marks than he is now coming off a somewhat rough 2018 campaign. 


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