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Wednesday, August 29, 2018

2018 FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT BUSTS: RUSSELL WILSON

While we continue to espouse waiting to draft a quarterback in single-passer fantasy football leagues, those who do in decide to dive in early often are choosing between the Seattle Seahawks' Russell Wilson, the Houston Texans' DeShaun Watson, and the New England Patriots' Tom Brady once Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is off the board.  Right now Wilson is being drafted on average as the second QB off the board after Rodgers and that is based on the fact he comes off a 2017 campaign where he threw for a career-high-tying 34 passing scores and also rushed for 586 on the ground for another 3 trips to the end zone.  Those numbers combined together made Wilson the top scoring player in 2018 fantasy football leagues that use 6 points for a TD and when you add in the durability, it makes sense he is going so high.  It does need to be stressed right now that fantasy football is not about last year's numbers but what they will do going forward and while this sounds simplistic, many in the fantasy football community lose sight of this as they pay through the nose expecting a repeat.  In Wilson's case this seems like a major longshot and the first reason is due to the arrival of Brian Schottenheimer as the new OC.  Anyone who has been a fan of a team whose offense was run by Schottenheimer knows he is a HUGE proponent of running the football and the fact the team used a first-round pick on Rashaad Penny last April says it all.  Schottenheimer has said repeatedly that he wants the Seahawks to return to the run-dominant ways of Marshawn Lynch and that is a good thing to do since the team had their most success under such a plan.  So on the surface already we are going to be looking at fewer passes being thrown by Wilson and that could jog all the way back to 500 or less in terms of attempts. 

In addition to the Scottenheimer arrival, we also have the big issue of tight end Jimmy Graham exiting off to Green Bay.  Graham led all tight ends in red zone looks a year ago and Wilson almost obsessively threw his way every time when a score was in play.  The Seahawks have mediocre veteran Ed Dickson and raw Nick Vannett as the possible replacement which is not very exciting to think about and so Wilson will be down a major weapon this season which will undoubtedly hurt his TD haul. 

Last but not least, Wilson's top wideout in veteran Doug Baldwin has been hobbled all summer with a bum knee and he said cryptically Tuesday that he doesn't think it will be 100 percent at any point this season.  With the risk of Baldwin going down for good at any point in the season, Wilson could be down TWO major targets to go with a new run-heavy offense. 

So as you can see, Russell Wilson looks like a major overdraft right now and we are much more eager to own guys like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, or Kirk Cousins this summer.  While Wilson will still be a good pass/run weapons, his overall output is unlikely to live up to the summer hype. 


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