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Friday, June 1, 2018

2018 FANTASY BASEBALL STATUS REPORT: SEAN MANAEA SP OAKLAND A'S

The mocking began in earnest and didn't let up for weeks.  Just days before Oakland A's pitcher Sean Manaea tossed a no-hitter versus the Boston Red Sox on April 21st, yours  truly typed out a piece on the guy telling the fantasy baseball community that his early dominant results were a fluke.  I came to that premise when examining the fact Manaea had a double whammy of a very low K/9 rate which serves as a big negative in the American League and also due to a BABIP that was beyond lucky while straddling the .200 mark.  Then the no-hitter came and needless to say, there were more than a few derisive comments coming my way.   Undeterred, I stuck to my premise on Manaea and said once again to sell high on the guy given the certain correction that was coming despite his sparkling 1.23 ERA at the time.  Well if you were to fast forward to present day, Manaea now sits here with a 3.60 ERA that continues to rise by the start and his advanced ratios continues to be filled with red flags.

Breaking this down a bit more, for the month of May Manaea now has a truly hideous ERA of 7.18 and his 1.47 WHIP is beyond disgusting.  Want more?  How about Manaea's current 6.72 K/9 which is downright comical and again leaves little margin for error in operating in the AL if his stuff doesn't bite.  Finally, Manaea's .225 BABIP remains very lucky and his FIP ERA of 4.20 speaks to how he is not anywhere near the starter he looked to be earlier in the season. This is what I had talked about from the beginning though and so a certain sense of vindication is felt from this corner.  Remember that the season is six months long and that the numbers almost always move to where they should be given a player's true ability over the course of the season.  75 at-bats for a hitter and two months for a pitcher are good benchmarks to take with regards to the numbers becoming more stable and right now Manaea is looking very shaky by the start.  This is no surprise to me however as Manaea was on borrowed time after that Red Sox no-hitter a month ago.  Unfortunately, the sell high window is closing with a thud and it also wouldn't shock me one bit if Manaea were to be waiver trash by July.


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