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Tuesday, May 15, 2018

2018 FANTASY BASEBALL WRAPUP: MONDAY

Ozzie Albies:  3/5 with his 13th HR while hitting .277.  Every day I sit back and still try to process that I actually own this guy and all it took was a late round pick in the Experts League.  Scary to think what the end numbers will be.

Jose Bautista:  1/4 with his second HR while hitting .172.  No one doubts Bautista can still crack some home runs but he is strictly built on name brand at this stage as the average will struggle to reach .240.

Kris Bryant:  1/5 with his 8th HR while hitting .281.  Bryant has been on a power tear the last two weeks and he seems primed to make a run at 35 home runs which would quiet talk about the dip from a year ago there. 

Jose Quintana:  6 ER in 4.2 IP with an ERA of 5.23.  I am not saying Quintana is ruined from all those years of heavy usage at a young age but the numbers are staggeringly bad both on the surface and advanced front.  K/9 rate down two full strikeouts, walks are at career-worst levels, and the XFIP and FIP ERA's offer nothing positive.  What an utter disaster.

Whit Merrifield:  3/4 with his 4th HR while hitting .287.  Whit that April performance of yours has been completely forgiven. 

Ryan Yarbrough:  5 IP 5 H 1 ER 3 BB 4 K with an ERA of 3.93.  You always want to be keyed in on any young arm coming out of the Tampa Bay system and he rocked a 9.10 K/9 a year ago in the minors.  Walks and homers are solid in terms of rates so Yarbrough should remain on your monitor list in shallow leagues and added everywhere else.  I don't think this is ace or SP 2 upside but maybe SP 3. 

Khris Davis:  2/4 with his 12th HR while hitting .217.  Davis is on his typical 5 homers in 8 games streak and if you play him during these runs and remove when the 0-for-17 arrives, you can do real well here.  I personally don't have the patience for such ongoing maneuvering. 

Matt Olson:  2/4 with his 6th HR while hitting .234.  Whether it was Chapman or Olson, neither guy can hit for even a decent average with the pop. 

J.D. Martinez:  2/4 with his 11th HR while hitting .346.  Man while the power is insane here on a yearly basis, what really makes Martinez such a ridiculous offensive player is that he matches it with such a good average. 

Rafael Devers:  1/4 with his 7th HR while hitting .256.  Like I have said numerous times already, Devers has been good but not great.  He should find more comfort as the season goes on however so better times are ahead.

Rick Porcello:  5 ER in 6 IP with an ERA of 3.28.  I mean you did hear me say to sell as I continued my personal animus against Porcello.  ERA up over a run since I began that creed.

Jose Ramirez:  1/3 with his 12th HR while hitting .288.  Ramirez is knocking on 2019 first-round status.

Niko Goodrum:  2/4 with 2 home runs (4 for season) while hitting .257.  Goodrum is on a nice mini-power tear but there are clear limitations here as shown by his 28.6 K/9 rate serving as a major batting average drain.  Use just in AL-only. 

Wade LeBlanc:  6 IP 3 H 0 ER 0 BB 4 K with an ERA of 2.51.  Add LeBlanc to the Clayton Richard file in terms of boring as hell veteran guys who seem to pop up from the wire with decent enough ratios to warrant SP 5 status for a stretch before bottom falls out.  Do with that what you may. 

Jake Odorizzi:  6 IP 4 H 0 ER 1 BB 7 K with an ERA of 3.35. You won't find many better SP 5's out there. 

Jonathan Villar:  3/4 with his second HR and 7th SB while hitting .282.  I said back in March that Villar's ADP had fallen so drastically that he was now valuable again.  And this from a guy who stamped him correctly as a tremendous bust for 2017.  All about the price tag/opportunity in terms of looking for bargains to put you over the top.  This was one. 

Junior Guerra:  2 ER in 6 IP with an ERA of 3.08.  FIP is 3.88 and XFIP is 4.50 so still not buying a guy who was pretty terrible for most of his career suddenly figured it out at the age of 33. 

Patrick Corbin:  6 IP 6 H 4 ER 1 BB 8 K with an ERA of 2.53.  I noted on Twitter yesterday that there are alarms blaring around Corbin in terms of his average fastball being down almost 3 mph from April to May which is downright scary and the heavy slider usage could be the cause.  Reliance on a slider as a dominant pitch is tough on the elbow and so that is something which needs to be watched closely as the ERA continues to slowly rise.

Andrew Heaney:  8 IP 4 H 1 ER 1 BB 10 K with an ERA of 3.93.  Injuries were the main thing that retarded the growth of this former top Miami Marlins prospect.  Heaney has always had top-notch control and sneaky strikeout stuff so take a chance in deeper leagues. 

Adam Duvall:  2/2 with his 7th HR while hitting .188.  Nothing has changed here in terms of Duvall being a vastly overrated all-or-nothing slugger.  Don't even bother. 

Scott Schebler:  3/4 with his 5th HR while hitting .264.  While you can totally pass Duvall on by, Schebler is worth another look as his average was depressed by a very unlucky BABIP a year ago and the power is real.

Brandon Belt:  3/5 with his 7th HR while hitting .297.  Steady as they come with Belt as he is having a very good season and was another guy whose presented good value at the draft given the massive ADP decrease. 


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