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Thursday, May 24, 2018

2018 FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: ZACK GODLEY SP ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Damn.  That would be the collective reaction to anyone who owns Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zack Godley who supplied a 6-earned run in 3.1 IP bomb early Wednesday to further along what has been a frustratingly poor season to this point despite carrying immense expectations heading into the new season.  As it stands now, Godley sits with the following numbers going into his next outing:

4-4
4.53 ERA
1.56 WHIP
8.41 K/9
4.69 BB/9
1.13 HR/9
.315 BABIP

Wow those are some ugly numbers and overall Godley has been nothing short of a liability for his fantasy baseball owners despite coming off a major 2017 breakout where he registered a 3.37 ERA and posted a 9.58 K/9 rate.  What jumps out right away is the complete lack of control as Godley has walked the ballpark so far this season as shown by his pathetic 4.69 BB/9 and that is way up from 3.08 the year prior.  In addition, Godley has leaked strikeouts as well as his 8.41 K/9 is down more than a full whiff from 2017.  With a fly ball rate that is only up slightly and a line drive rate that is down from last season, the lack of control is looking like the biggest issue here.  It makes sense since more runners on base via the walk lead to more runs when Godley does give up hits and so we get the major spike in ERA and WHIP.  Now there has been some slight bad luck with Godley's BABIP but even his FIP (4.43) and XFIP (4.10) ERA's are not impressive.  So in the end, we have to accept that Godley is hurting himself with the walks but that hitters have a better read on how to deal with him this season after 2017's success.

In the end, I would not automatically buy low here as Godley is now pitching poorly in two of the last three seasons and so 2017 looks like the outlier at this point.  While his stuff is still good, Godley simply has not put hitters away in any way the manner he did a year ago.  As a Godley owner, I am not officially gun-shy in terms of using him for the immediate future.




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