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Friday, April 20, 2018

2018 FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT 1B ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Humidor or nonsense?  That has been the central question centering around all the Arizona Diamondbacks hitters since the news first broke in early spring training that the team would install a humidor for 2018 in order to help curb the home run-heavy aspect of Chase Field.  The knee-jerk reaction here was that starting with Paul Goldschmidt and working on down the line, was that there would be a drop in home runs and overall offensive numbers for the team's offensive players given the humidor's effects which experts say could knock down long balls by up to 30 percent.  This led me to dropping Goldy down from a sure-fire top five player for all of fantasy baseball entering into 2018 drafts down toward the end of Round 1 given the news.  Fast forward to today and perhaps the humidor was not such a myth after all as Goldschmidt went into Friday's action with the following numbers:

.254
4 HR
14 R
10 RBI 
0 SB
25.3 K/9

Hmmmmm.  So we are now a month into the season and past the 60 at-bat threshold where statistical numbers begin to settle in and Goldy's numbers are down across the board.  Also out of Goldy's 4 home runs, not a single on has come at home which is startling.  Coincidence?  Maybe but also maybe not.  In addition, Goldy is striking out at a much higher clip this season as his 25.3 K/9 is really getting up there and is a sharp increase from 22.1 the year prior.  If Goldy stays above that 22.1 this season, it would make the third straight seasons he saw an increase there which is another red flag.  Finally, Goldy does not have a single steal and I did point out during the spring and in our annual draft guide that his days of running could be coming to a close now that he had reached his 30's.

So where do we go from here and will Goldy rebound?  To a point I think Goldy will be fine in that his average should rise and he won't keep hitting .175 versus righties as he is as of this writing.  Also the power should still be very good on the road.  At home though is another story given that he has yet to hit a home run there and so we have to consider that 30-plus home runs are a thing of the past.  That doesn't mean he cant hit 25 but the dip there and any loss in steals would make Goldy a guy no longer worthy of being a Round 1 pick in fantasy baseball going forward.  


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