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Sunday, April 15, 2018

2018 FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: JOSE QUINTANA SP CHICAGO CUBS

Heading into the 2018 fantasy baseball, admittedly one of my preferred starting pitchers who had a decent price tag attached to him was the Chicago Cubs' Jose Quintana.  After all, Quintana first became a favorite in these parts when he churned out year after year of terrific numbers with the Chicago White Sox for annual prices of a late-round pick.  With a K/9 rate that only kept growing (and would especially do so once he arrived with the Cubs during a mid-season trade a year ago), the thought of even better numbers for 2018 was easy to understand.  Well I guess Quintana didn't get the memo because his latest shellacking on Saturday (7 ER in 2.1 IP) have him now sitting with the following numbers:

1-1
8.16 ERA
1.18 WHIP
5.65 K/9

Man those are ugly numbers no matter where you look and they get worse the further you did.  What quickly stands out is Quintana's 5.65 K/9 which is downright putrid and far below his 9.87 mark a year ago.  Even if you go back further, Quintana at the very least was a mid-7.50 K/9 guy.  So something is amiss here and one part of the blame could go that Quintana's average fastball velocity is down to just 91.4 this season which is down from his standard 92.5  While not much, any dip in fastball velocity makes a big difference for a hitter and so it is easier for them to catch up to Quintana's heater.  In addition, Quintana is really fighting his control as his 6.28 BB/9 is downright comical.  Since he is not beating himself with home runs (just a 0.63 HR/9), it stands to reason that Quintana is just messed up mechanically to begin the season.  You have to take into consideration that the weather in Chicago and most of the country for that matter has been horrendous and so some blame can lie there.  Once the winter winds die down and the temperature heats up, Quintana should be much more effective.  Quintana has always had very good control and so his struggles right now on that front belongs in the outlier bin.  In fact we would suggest trying a buy low here given what the advanced rates are showing.  Things will turn around so keep the faith here and see things through. 


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