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Saturday, March 3, 2018

2018 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: TREVOR STORY SS COLORADO ROCKIES

As tremendous as Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story's debut was with the team in 2016 (.272, 27 HR, 72 RBI), we sounded the alarms in these pages last winter with regards to potential trouble that lay ahead.  While pointing out the respect this peanut stand had for Story's power and the allure of Coors Field, at the same time we noted how the guy was headed for a sizable fall in batting average (and thus overall offensive counting numbers) due to two big factors:  a high strikeout rate and a BABIP that would adjust in 2017.  As far as the strikeouts were concerned, Story's 31.3 K/9 mark as a rookie was horrific but that was overshadowed by our second concern which was the BABIP.  It was there where Story received some major luck as his .343 BABIP went well into the fortunate range.  So it was reasoned that the high K's and adjusting BABIP would send the numbers downward at a decent clip the following season.  Well that is exactly what happened as Story's K/9 got worse at 34.4 (no doubt as a result of opposing pitchers doing their homework on his weaknesses) and the BABIP dropped a bit to .332 (although still well in the lucky range.  Add in some injury factors and Story hit just .239 with 24 home runs and 82 RBI in 555 at-bats.  While the RBI were just fine, the power did take a fall which is related to the increased strikeouts/dropping average.  Story really needs to get to work on curbing the K/9 rate and by more than a little if he wants to get back to his 2016 numbers.  Again while we are not suggesting Story is a bum by any means, he clearly was overrated for 2017 and his owners paid a price for that.  The overall picture needs to be digested here when it comes to Story and that would show a talented but flawed player.

2018 PROJECTION:  .244 26 HR 83 RBI 73 R 8 SB  

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