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Sunday, September 3, 2017

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL STATUS REPORT: LANCE LYNN SP ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Way back in March and in the pages of our annual Fantasy Sports Boss Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, we suggested strongly to buy very low on Tommy John recovering St. Louis Cardinals veteran pitcher Lance Lynn.  Prior to the surgery that wiped out his entire 2016, Lynn had solidified himself as one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball as he won 60 games between 2012 and 2015, while putting up ERA's that went as low as 2.74 and never crept over 3.98.  Throw in a power arm that 180 or more K's three times in that four year span and Lynn was a true under-the-radar stud.  Like most power arms at some point however, Tommy John came calling and so Lynn was mostly a forgotten man once 2017 fantasy baseball came about.  That made him the perfect buy low opportunity and why we were so bullish on him in spring training.

Fast forward to present day and Lynn just put the finishing touches on 8 shutout innings Saturday night that included just one hit given up, four walks, and four strikeouts.  The outing lowered his season ERA to 2.99 and his WHIP to 1.15 with 10 wins.  Absolutely tremendous numbers that are at an SP 2 level for Lynn and while we worried about fatigue during the summer months given the fact he missed all of 2016, there are no signs of this happening given his Saturday outing.  Now we do need to point out that Lynn's .229 BABIP is one of the most lucky numbers in the game this season and when adjusted, his FIP (4.72) and XFIP (4.67) ERA's are very ugly.  That is also tied into the fact Lynn's K/9 has dipped to a shaky 7.39 and his control remains a struggle (as it always has been in his career) with a 3.53 BB/9.  So while Lynn is really not pitching as well as his surface numbers suggest, we are not in September with his ERA at 2.99 so the advanced numbers lose steam this late in the season.  Overall you couldn't ask for more from Lynn in 2017 and it is another reminder that buying low on veterans often pays off nicely.


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