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Tuesday, September 26, 2017

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL POSTSCRIPT: DYLAN BUNDY SP BALTIMORE ORIOLES

While he entered into the 2017 fantasy baseball season at the very young age of 24, Baltimore Orioles top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy was already a forgotten man by many given the stutter steps and setbacks along the way in his development.  Already with a Tommy John surgery under his belt, Bundy struggled to get his career back from on track from 2015-16 as the Orioles even toyed with the idea of converting him to a reliever.  Despite all that, Bundy was handed a starting rotation spot to begin the year and the rest as they say was history.  Opening up like gangbusters with an ace-like April (1.65 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), Bundy showed the raw power stuff that made him such a highly touted prospect in the first place.  Even more encouraging was the fact Bundy was generating a high number of strikeouts; which further added to the growing hype.  Unfortunately the fun didn't last as Bundy hit the skids badly once the weather began to heat up; pitching to horrid ERA's of 5.93 and 8.41 in June/July.  That drastic dip caused Bundy to get sent to the waiver wire in many leagues and it also generated more talk that he would never fulfill expectations.  While Bundy did post a big comeback in August (2.00 ERA, 45 K's in 36 IP), he hit the skids again with a 7.53 ERA September before he was shut down for good in the middle of the month with a hamstring injury.  So while Bundy's season was one big roller coaster with regard to drastic fluctuations in the numbers, the total sum was decent as he finished with a 4.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  When digging into the advanced metrics however, the story becomes much less interesting.  For one thing, Bundy's 8.06 K/9 was not all that impressive considering his once potent minor league rates in that category.  Secondly. Bundy's .273 BABIP was quite lucky and when adjusted,. his FIP (4.38) and XFIP (4.77) ERA's are turn very ugly.  Finally, Bundy's 1.38 HR/9 is a big problem in the AL East and his launching pad home ballpark and that makes any one start he makes risky since it could blow up at a moment's notice through 2 or 3 bad pitches.  When you add all of this together, Bundy looks like a very shaky place to put your fantasy baseball dollars for 2018 and we didn't even touch on his smallish frame leading to more injury issues.  Way too many headaches to concern yourself with here.
2018 PROJECTION:  14-10 3.85 ERA 1.19 WHIP 165 K 

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