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Sunday, August 13, 2017

2017 FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: JORDY NELSON WR GREEN BAY PACKERS

When it comes to the wide receiver position heading into 2017 fantasy football, there is a general understanding that the top four guys are Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr,., Julio Jones, and Mike Evans in mostly that order.  All four are dominant WR 1's and all are deserving of their first-round status.  Right behind them though is a golden oldie in the form of Green Bay Packers veteran Jordy Nelson who has been one of the very best TD producers at the position since he first broke in out of Kansas State.  While Nelson had a completely lost 2015 campaign due to a torn ACL in his knee, he was the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year in 2016 when he caught 97 balls for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns.  A magnificent season all the way around and so Nelson very much should be in play as early as the top pick of Round 2.

Now in digging in more on Nelson, a few things stand out.  One is that again he has been an insane TD producer in his career, having gone for 13 or more three times.  Nelson has also always been a major yardage stud as well, going over 1,200 yards on four occasions, with all four coming in the last five seasons he was healthy.  So clearly the baseline that has been established with Nelson is a ton of yardage and a ton of TD's.  However over the last two of his healthy seasons, Nelson has gone over the 95-catch mark which he had never come close to doing previously. In fact Nelson only once in his first six seasons went for over 80 catches and so he has been an uptick guy there as he has gotten older.  And it is age that is pretty much the only worry we have on Nelson who will be 32 when the 2017 season gets underway.  Perhaps an indication to age was seen in Nelson's 13.0 yards per catch a year ago which was his lowest since 2010.  It is possible there has been a slight dip in pure speed from Nelson and that he is no longer the big home run TD scorer he was earlier in his career.  Be that as it may, he remains the top receiving dog in an always explosive Green Bay passing offense led by Aaron Rodgers and so the number should flow regardless.  So in the end, Nelson should be drafted as an early second round to be your firm WR 1 once again this season.

2017 PROJECTION:  90 catches 1,267 yards 12 TD  


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