Wednesday, August 23, 2017


Boy do things change quickly in fantasy football.  A year ago at this time, everyone and their mother was prepared to do everything and anything to own newly-signed Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller.  Having shown big-time ability during his underutilized four year stay with the Miami Dolphins, Miller seemed to be moving to as good a spot as any for a back as Texans head coach Bill O'Brien spoke constantly of using his new toy heavily.  Run him heavily O'Brien did as Miller received 28, 25, and 21 carries each of the first three weeks of the 2016 season.  With Miller serving as a very rare bellcow back, all seemed swell for his fantasy football owners.  However there was trouble even then as Miller only ran for 100 yards once in those first three games despite all those carries.  And things would get worse from that high point as Miller rushed for 100 or more yards only three more times in the last 13 games and his average for the season cratered to a mediocre 4.0 after coming in at 4.5 and 5.1 the previous two campaigns.  Throw in some injuries and just 5 rushing scores with another dip in receptions with 31 and Miller went down as a decent bust for 2016 fantasy football.

Fast forward to present time and a popular narrative surrounding Miller this season is that he is a good bounce back guy.  With O'Brien vowing to curb the workload a bit, the thinking is that a fresher Miller will churn out more explosive plays and thus overall yardage.  Unfortunately yours truly thinks Miller is someone to avoid and there are a few key reasons why.  The first is that the QB situation in Houston remains a joke as Tom Savage will likely be named the starter which is not saying much of anything.  That means more 8 men in the box for Miller to try and fight through which was a big problem last season.  In addition, the Texans have a very capable backup in Alfred Blue who has outplayed Miller this summer and also rookie D'Onte Foreman who will likely be the goal-line back.  So with Foreman stealing scores and Blue likely eating into some more carries, Miller is looking very shaky as a fantasy football investment.  Hence this is why I avoided him in the Experts League this past week.  Now Miller is talented which I won't dispute but I also don't like the makeup of this situation at all.  Avoid.

2017 PROJECTION:  1,026 yards 6 TD 38 receptions 245 yards 1 TD  

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