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Thursday, July 6, 2017

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: AROLDIS CHAPMAN RP CINCINNATI REDS

Dellin Betances has company when it comes to trouble at the back-end of the New York Yankees' bullpen.  While Betances currently is getting most of the headlines after he walked four our of five batters he faced during Wednesday's game, closer Aroldis Chapman has also more than done his part to help sabotage games late for the Yankees during the course of the 2017 season.  Having already spent a stint on the disabled list, Chapman is garnering a bunch of concern about the health of his cannon arm and the concern stems for the insane way Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon used the Cuban in the postseason a year ago.  Even Chapman himself publicly took Maddon to task for the overuse he suffered, especially during the World Series and many are pointing to that issue as the reason he has hit the DL and currently totes a very high for him 3.86 ERA.  In fact a 3.86 ERA for Chapman is like a 4.86 ERA for anyone else and so there is more than reason to be worried here.

In digging into the numbers however, things are not as bad as the surface numbers may seem.  For one thing, Chapman's current 14.46 K.9 rate is better than the 13.97 he accumulated a year ago.  However it is still down from the 15.00-plus he put up from 2012 through 2015.  In addition, Chapman's BB/9 has only gone up slightly from last year's 2.79 to this seasons's 2.89.  So what is the reason for the ERA spike?  Try a terribly unlucky .422 BABIP that is nothing but insanity.  When adjusted for luck, Chapman's FIP ERA comes to out to 1.22 and his XFIP ERA to 2.18.  In other words, standard Chapman numbers.  So when the hits all stop falling in, Chapman will be right back to where he was before.  And with the adjusted ERA's being so splendid, it lessens the concern about the Maddon issue really being at work.  Those Chapman owners can rest a bit easier based on this knowledge and even a buy low here is a nice strategy to employ.


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