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Thursday, June 15, 2017

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL STATUS REPORT: ERIC THAMES OUTFIELDER/1B MILWAUKEE BREWERS

"The other day someone send me a message on Twitter saying he got offered Edwin Encarnacion straight up for Thames.  Another one said he was offered Carlos Correa straight up.  Yet another was offered Manny Machado.  These three actually asked me what to do and I waited all of two seconds to say accept all three offers.  In fact it was utterly ludicrous that these Thames owners were offered these first round and top tier hitters for a guy with two outstanding weeks in the majors.  In fact all Thames owners everyone NEED to shoot for the moon in trying to sell high here as his value will NEVER be higher.  Pretty soon Thames will cool off and his past as a high-K guy will start to show up again.  Right now Thames' BABIP is at .448 which is stupid lucky and again he was a big strikeout guy in the past who could easily slide back into that mode again.  Remember that opposing pitchers have literally zero film on Thames and so there is no current book on the holes in his swing.  Once that is discovered like with Shelton, these pitchers will go to town on Thames there and the average will sink and the homers won't be as frequent.  If you can wrest a proven and top tier talent prior to that, by all means do it."

The above is what I wrote back on April 26th or the height of the Eric Thames craze when the homers were flying out on a daily basis and everyone was willing to pay through the nose to get their hands on him.  While the majority of the fantasy baseball world was dodging, I was weaving in telling all the Thames owners to sell high given the issues I talked about before.  With Thames having a high-K approach that would eventually be taken advantage of by major league hitter and cause the average to sink and the homer frequency to dry up a bit.  Well that is exactly what has taken place which is no shock to yours truly.  Whereas Thames' K/9 rate was around 20.0 by the end of April, it has now risen to 25.6 which is getting very high.  In addition, Thames' average has taken a nosedive to .256 which is getting to be very shaky.  So overall Thames has become the all-or-nothing slugger I said he would be, with his overall fantasy baseball value having dropped drastically since April.  While I again think Thames will be a terrific HR and RBI guy, his overall impact has muted quite a bit since his big start.  Yet another lesson learned for many not to overreact to a hot first couple of weeks to any given season.




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