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Thursday, June 1, 2017

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL STATUS REPORT: JUSTIN BOUR 1B MIAMI MARLINS

While there is no denying the fact that the long ball is fully back in style the last two seasons in fantasy baseball, it is also undeniable that those corner infielders who calling card is the hone run often become some prime value plays.  While the first two rounds in drafts this past spring were littered with the Paul Goldschmidts's, Anthony Rizzo's, and Freddie Freeman's of the world, already were have seen some late round or even undrafted power bats like Justin Smoak, Ryan Zimmerman, and Yonder Alonso already supply some crazy value numbers for their respective owners,  Also joining that group is Miami Marlins first baseman Justin Bour who is now up to 15 home runs in just 201 at-bats this season after going long twice on Thursday.  For the season now, Bour has those 15 home runs to go with 36 RBI, and a very promising .288 average,  This from a guy who I said both in this year's Draft Guide and numerous times on the site to draft as a value play UTIL or CI bat and that Bour could be the cheapest 25-30 home runs in the game.  In fact this is what I wrote about Bour in my "Fantasy Baseball First Baseman I will Target" back in early February (a list that also included Eric Thames I might add):  "Justin Bour:  Dirt cheap 20-25 home runs with a solid amount of RBI you can throw into your CI or UTIL spot when a right is on the mound.  The new and younger version of Adam Lind.

That is exactly what Bour is now, right on down to issues versus lefties.  Still Bour has the natural power to be a yearly 25 home run guy and he is well on his way to even surpassing that total by August.  Now digging into the numbers a bit, we find a few interesting things on Bour so far.  The first is that his .308 BABIP is nearly in neutral territory and not far from the .295 range he historically has been at.  So that means the average gain Bour has made this seasons is almost completely legit; with only a slight jog back to .270-275 being more realistic.  He also remains a good free pass guy as Bour's 10.9 BB/9 rate is very high for a slugger.  His 22.99 K/9 rate is not so hot but that is the only negative right now worth discussing.  

Overall, Justin Bour has been every bit the value play/sleeper I said he would be and he is challenging Corey Dickerson as my best recommendation under that ledger so far this season.  Buy in fully to what Bour is doing and enjoy what is appearing like a tremendous career campaign.  


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