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Friday, May 5, 2017

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL STATUS REPORT: KYLE SCHWARBER C/OF CHICAGO CUBS

Back in spring training I did a piece on how Chicago Cubs catcher Kyle Schwarber was quite overpriced and how in turn the similarly skilled Evan Gattis was a value play.  Since Schwarber was the "fresh catcher face on the block" and coming off a terrific postseason comeback the October prior, he was going to be the one many in the fantasy baseball community chased in the early portions of the draft.  We told you not to do such a thing as Schwarber has some big negatives that included a high K/9 rate and a shoddy average that would go with it.  Instead we chose to go with Gattis at a much cheaper rate and needless to say things worked out nicely on our end.  While Gattis went into Friday's action with a .308 average and 2 home runs in 74 at-bats, Schwarber has been brutal with a .189 average and 4 homers in 125 at-bats.  Despite having 50 fewer at-bats, Gattis has been the better buy.  Schwarber on the other hand is causing quite a bit of angst to his owners which we will go into further.

In terms of Schwarber, the big problem again has been the high amount of strikeouts as his K/9 is beyond gross at 31.2.  That is as bad as it gets and speaks to the continued contact problems Schwarber has.  Yes Schwarber continues to walk at a very high rate (13.6 BB/9) which should lessen the average hit a bit but some poor BABIP luck (.254) has held it down as well.  Guys who don't have big speed like the plodding Schwarber won't be able to beat the BABIP curve going the other way and so the average will likely continue to be a problem.  Yes the average is big-time but the awful average is ruining the value you get from his home runs.  On the plus side, Schwarber is getting on base and his counting numbers should be good with all the additional at-bats that come from such a spot.  25-30 home runs is also very possible here which is certainly nothing to sniff at.  However a .240 average is also likely and this is no good.  We warned Schwarber would be overpriced and many didn't listen.  They are paying for that choice at this early stage of the season.



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