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Sunday, April 30, 2017

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: CARLOS CORREA SS HOUSTON ASTROS

Boy can things change fast in fantasy baseball.  It was just in 2015 when Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa took the game by storm during his debut with the team.  Showing instant stardom and the ability to be a five-tool monster, Correa posted the following numbers in less than a full season:

22 HR
.279
68 RBI
52 R
14 SB

All of those numbers in just 432 at-bats.  Needless to say, Correa's stock in fantasy baseball for 2016 went through the roof as he went right into first round territory given the numbers and his eligibility at the shallow shortstop spot.  We were a bit leery of this as Correa was still just 21 and had not had much minor league seasoning.  What happened next may not have been a big shock given those issues as Correa disappointed many of his owners by posting these numbers:

20 HR
.274
96 RBI
76 R
13 SB

Of course is sounds ridiculous that Correa's owners would feel letdown as those are still very good numbers from a guy who was just 21.  The power was impressive and the steals pretty good as well.  However Correa LOST two home runs and 1 steal last season despite having 228 more at-bats which is where the disappointment came in.  Again though we are talking about a young player who still needs to go through some growing pains before he levels off into the stardom we anticipate.

While Correa did not get drafted as high as he did the year prior, his name still carried a lot of cache at the draft table this spring.  With shortstop not as shallow as it has been though, Correa needed to show he was still one of the best young players at the position.  Needless to say, his season has been dreadful so far as Correa went into Saturday's action with a horrid .231 average, 2 home runs, and no steals in 89 at-bats.  Already the e-mails have come though to yours truly asking if they should trade Correa and what is wrong with him.  Well again he is just 22 and it won't be until around four years later where Correa reaches his prime.  He has seen his K.9 spike to 22.5 this season, which would be the third year in a row he saw a rise there.  That is not helping matters but opposing pitchers likely have more of a firm book on Correa and his weaknesses.  Also his 9.0 BB/9 rate is down from 11,4 last year which again has hurt the average.

All in all, there is no doubt that Correa has endured a tough start to the season but I actually would suggest buying low on him.  This is a 15/15 guy at the leastand Correa will likely go to 20 home runs again.  He will also continue to fill out and add more power as we go along.  Take advantage of the panicky Correa owners and try to steal him away.


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