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Wednesday, April 12, 2017

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: JONATHAN VILLAR SS MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Just like in the movies, the encore to a sudden fantasy baseball out-of-the-blue breakout is a dud.  Consider what is currently going on with Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Jonathan Villar as a possible case in point.  It was just a year ago of course when Villar was arguably the fantasy baseball value play of the year when at a shallow shortstop position, he came out and shocked the world by hitting .285 with 19 home runs and 62 stolen bases.  This after Villar bombed out of the Houston Astros system under a hail of strikeouts and poor batting averages.  It was the latter issue that had me telling you all to bob when the rest of the fantasy baseball community weaved in terms of 2017 drafts.  While there was no denying the attraction to the extreme fantasy baseball juice Villar had supplied, many chose to ignore the fact he put up a nasty 25.6 K/9 rate that needed generous .373 BABIP help to get to the .285.  In fact I wrote this about Villar in an "overrated" post a few weeks ago:  "In fact, Villar is likely to see his average dip into the .260's this season as the .285 he batted last season was a major outlier for his career norms and he struck out at an insane 25.6 K/9 rate."  So it is that Villar is now hitting just .143 on the season and in just 35 at-bats, he has struck out 15 times for a 41.7 K/9 rate.  Of course Villar is not going to strike out at that insane rate all season but this is a guy who has always had contact issues that undermined him.  With opposing pitchers more in tune to Villar's tendencies then ever before, more trouble could be in store.  If Villar is not getting on base at a decent clip, he can't run as much as he did a year ago.  And the average will hurt you and take away shine from the home runs.  In short, Villar is a guy who is trending in the wrong direction and somewhat sharply we may add.  While he surely can turn things around, I also remind you of my mantra to never pay for a career season.  This is why.


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