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Tuesday, January 3, 2017

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT BUST: GARY SANCHEZ C NEW YORK YANKEES (RELATIVE TO DRAFT PRICE)

Buckle up and hold on because the fight at all draft tables this season is going to be beyond intense in terms of getting your hands on New York Yankees overnight star catcher Gary Sanchez.  In what can only be described as a truly insane debut, Sanchez broke all sorts of rookie records in clubbing 20 home runs and collecting 42 RBI in just 229 at-bats.  Sanchez tied the all-time MLB record for the fastest player in history to 20 home runs to begin a career and a .299 batting average that was only depressed by a final week slump went along for the ride.  In going back down memory lane a bit, Sanchez was a much hyped prospect from the beginning but he also ran into a few detours along the way to the majors due to injury and misconduct (he was suspended twice for behavioral/disciplinary reasons).  Even prior to his promotion last year, Sanchez had only 10 home runs and a modest .282 average in 313 Triple-A at-bats, which makes what he did with the Yankees so spectacular.  At the same time though, you have to fully accept that Sanchez will NEVER approach numbers on a per game basis like that ever again and his draft price for 2017 is likely going to be grossly inflated.  This is especially true when you get the very rare catcher who can hit the way Sanchez can.  Keep in mind that for all the glowing numbers, Sanchez struck out in 24.9 percent of his at-bats last year and he also got a lucky boost from his .317 BABIP.  With apparent holes in his swing, opposing pitchers will study those Sanchez weaknesses all winter and be ready to exploit them from the jump in 2017.  Remember we have seen recent examples of overnight stars such as Yasiel Puig or to a lesser extent Carlos Correa a year ago who then struggled during their sophomore campaigns and Sanchez stands a good chance of joining this group.  Now understand we are not saying Sanchez is going to be a bust this season in terms of the totality of his numbers.  Instead what we’re saying is that for his expected second or third round ADP, Sanchez’s numbers stand a good chance of not making the grade in terms of that lofty draft spot.  If you can get Sanchez in Round 5 or later then by all means dive right in but he was in such outlier territory a year ago that this has a better chance of going in the disappointment bin then in the spectacular one. 

2017 PROJECTION:  .280 24 HR 74 RBI 65 R 4 SB  

2 comments:

  1. In a keeper league, would you project him into the fourth round given his potential beyond his sophomore year?

    ReplyDelete