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Friday, December 16, 2016

2017 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: BRIAN DOZIER 2B MINNESOTA TWINS

Yes we admit it.  We told you all to avoid Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier for 2016 drafts and 42 home runs, 104 runs, and 99 RBI’s later, there was plenty of egg on our faces.  The reasoning we were so down on Dozier entering into the year was pretty obvious.  The guy had just put a 2015 performance in the rearview mirror where his stolen bases slipped sharply and his .236 average stretched to 4 seasons out of 4 where he could not even bat .250.  While the 28 home runs were nice, such an ugly average takes some starch out of the power numbers as any fantasy baseball veteran would tell you.  With four MLB seasons in the books, we felt there was enough of a sample size to draw our “try and avoid drafting” conclusion but Dozier’s insane 2016 numbers said otherwise.  Getting back to the numbers, not only did Dozier set a career-best in home runs by 12, his overall hitting improved as well which was perhaps even more important to his value.  Dozier’s final .268 average was almost like he hit .300 considering the very bad struggles he previously had in this area.  In addition, Dozier upped the steals to 18 (gaining 6 from 2015) which again boosted his bottom line fantasy baseball standing.  Now of course we have to throw a bit of cold water on Dozier’s performance by pointing out the outlier aspect that is in play here.  Dozier was far-and-away above his career norms both in home runs and batting average and so this needs to be factored into what you will pay for him in 2017.  We can easily see Dozier slide back to 30 homers and a .250 average and that could be a bad development based on where you like will have to draft him this spring.  This is why some discipline will be needed here when weighing an investment in Dozier and ideally, we would be apt to not chase the career year since that usually leads to disappointment. 

2017 PROJECTION:  .257 34 HR 90 RBI 101 R 16 SB  

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