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Tuesday, August 30, 2016

THE FANTASY SPORTS BOSS PPR EXPERTS LEAGUE DRAFT ANAYSIS: ROUNDS 3 AND 4

So we already went through the first 20 picks of the Fantasy Sports Boss 2016 Fantasy Football Experts PPR league so now lets' dig into Round 3-4 with analysis.

Round 1 and 2 Review

1.  Odell Beckham Jr.
2.  Antonio Brown
3.  Julio Jones
4.  Dez Bryant
5.  DeAndre Hopkins
6.  Todd Gurley
7.  Brandon Marshall
8.  Lamar Miller
9.  David Johnson
10. Allen Robinson
11. Cam Newton
12. A.J. Green
13. Keenan Allen
14. Amari Cooper
15. Jordy Nelson
16. Adrian Peterson
17. Doug Martin
18. Rob Gronkowski
19. Le'Veon Bell
20. Devonta Freeman

Round 3
 
21. Aaron Rodgers (QB):  This is a good spot for Rodgers who many still consider the top quarterback in the game.  While he doesn't run anywhere near as often as Cam Newton, the passing numbers are always dominant and now Rodgers get Jordy Nelson back.  Good pick in Round 3.

22. Jamaal Charles (RB):  Since I took Le'Veon Bell in Round 2, I needed to back him up with another top running back since he will miss three games with suspension.  Mission accomplished as I get Charles as a good value pick in Round 3.  League was scared off a bit by the age and two career ACL tears which no doubt are valid points but I liked Charles over the other top backs that were left such as Zeke Elliott (not a fan as you have read), Mark Ingram (always hurt himself and not buying the receptions from 2015 just yet), and Eddie Lacy (not a chance).

23. Zeke Elliott (RB):  Nothing but negative news has surrounded Elliott this summer as he is being investigated for domestic violence, he reported to camp overweight, and he was seen walking into a marajuana store.  While no one doubts the ability, Alfred Morris has had a huge summer and has earned a look and veteran Darren McFadden is also back off his career-best 2015.  That is a lot of red flags, even in Round 3.

24. Russell Wilson (QB):  The QB's are starting to go now and Round 3 is usually when it happens as everyone gets their top wideout and running back out of the way.  Still too early in my book though but Wilson is the right choice behind Rodgers and Newton. 

25. Andrew Luck (QB):  Luck is looking to put his hideous 2015 in the rearview mirror as he battled injuries behind a terrible offensive line and a slew of interceptions as he tried to force things.  The line was addressed in the draft so that is a plus and a comfortable Luck can carve up any defense.  Very good bounce back upside.

26.  Alshon Jeffery (WR):  I liked Jeffery alot, the injuries notwithstanding.  He is the clear number 1 target for QB Jay Curler who likes to fixate on one wideout as we saw with him and Brandon Marshall.  As long as the health permits, Jeffery will be right up there with any wideout in terms of numbers in 2016. 

27. Eddie Lacy (RB):  Perhaps the biggest risk/reward guy in the draft.  Lacy is still a bit over the target weight the Packers wanted for him coming into camp but he is in a contract year which means he will be motivated to play well.  Remember that Lacy was a terrific RB 1 in both 2013 and 2014 so he has bounce back appeal as well.  The leash is not long though which makes him still quite risky.

28. Sammy Watkins (WR):  While Tyrod Taylor proved he was a decent QB in 2015, Watkins has really been held back by the passers in Buffalo since being drafted.  There are few players who have as much natural talent as Watkins but injuries and the poor play under center have held him back.  Maybe this will be the year.  Or not. 

29. Mark Ingram (RB):  While he remains very injury prone, Ingram opened many eyes a year ago by going over the 50-catch mark which was a huge career-high.  Ingram never showed receiving chops before which means we got to take that number with a bit of a grain of salt but he doesn't have much competition for work in New Orleans so this is very good value at the end of Round 3.

30. Doug Baldwin (WR):  While there is no denying the monster second half Baldwin had with his massive amount of scoring receptions, this is too high for a guy who was nothing but waiver fodder prior. 

Round 4.  

31. Matt Forte (RB):  One of the best PPR backs of all-time, Father Time is calling for Forte who missed three games with injury a year ago and battled a balky hamstring all summer.  There are only so many carries a back like Forte can take and the presence of Bilal Powell means he won't be the workhorse he was in Chicago.  Risky.

32. Mike Evans (WR):  Evans has much more value in a standard league given his TD proclivities and lower reception totals. 

33. Ben Roethlisberger (QB):  When you draft Big Ben, you go in knowing he will miss 1-3 games....if you are lucky and it is not worse.  The Steelers are now completely a passing outfit and the weapons are big surrounding Roethlisberger.  Easy top five fantasy QB when on the field.

34. Larry Fitzgerald (WR):  Coming off a career-high in receptions a year ago, Fitz has to prove that wasn't an outlier campaign.  Round 4 a tad too high but in PPR Fitzgerald has much more value. 

35. LeSean McCoy (RB):  Correctly called out McCoy as a bust waiting to happen last season but he is back healthy and no longer has the presence of Karlos Williams to deal with.  Tough call here as McCoy could have one more good year in him at a reduced draft price but it also could continue to in the wrong direction. 

36. Jarvis Landry (WR):  In PPR formats Landry is gold so I like it. 

37. Brandin Cooks (WR):  Was annoyed here as I was ready to pick Cooks two selections later but oh well.  Love the PPR potential here in the New Orleans offense. 

38. Julian Edelman (WR):  Landry, Cooks, and Edelman are all similar players which makes it funny there were picked one right after the other.  Edelman is a bit scary and overrated though as he continues to battle injuries and his TD totals are light. 

39. Drew Brees (QB):  Couldn't pass up Brees here despite my vow to wait longer on fantasy football passers.  The value was right relative to the other options remaining at RB and WR.  I get a stud QB who is still slinging it with the best of them and who does have a very manageable playoff schedule.  

40.  Eric Decker (WR):  A bit high for my tastes as Decker is better in standard leagues but not a disaster either. 


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