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Tuesday, August 16, 2016

2016 FANTASY FOOTBALL QB's TO DRAFT/AVOID

Once again with fantasy football drafts in full swing, let's add some more clarity to the exercise by sharing my thoughts on the QB's you should draft or avoid this summer.  I am going on the benchmark of it being a one passer league which most formats are set for.  Under that premise, you would be foolish to draft a QB before Round 3 at the earliest and you are even best left to wait longer as you stock up on more precious backs and receivers.  Let's see who makes my cut this season from a guy who won the Experts League a year ago with Kirk Cousins starting the Super Bowl game. 

QB's To Target

Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Robert Griffin III

-Each one of these QB's offer good to great fantasy footbal value no matter how you slice it.  Each one of these guys can get you to the playoffs or to win it all like I did with Cousins a year ago in the Experts League.  As far as firm every week starters, target Manning, Rivers, Brady (when he returns from suspension) in particular.  Manning has been a big numbers guy in yardage and TD's the last two years under the Ben McAdoo offense and he also has drastically cut his turnovers.  Rivers meanwhile is a durable and consistent 25-30 TD/4,500 yard slinger who gets back a healthy Keenan Allen to join newcomer Travis Benjamin, receiving back Danny Woodhead, and Hall of Famer Antonio Gates.  Rivers in particular looks like a swell value.  Meanwhile Romo and Ryan have been longtime proven favorites of mine who are coming off rough 2015's for different reasons.  Romo of course suffered a broken collarbone twice and no doubt his durability is an issue.  However Romo also has been a big numbers guy himself from 2011-14 and his weapons remain potent.  As far as Ryan is concerned, the yardage was magnificent again last season but his TD numbers fell off the map.  We think the TD drop was an outlier fluke though as Ryan was a 25-30 guy from 2011-14 as well and he still has a top three wideout in Julio Jones at his disposal plus a decent newcomer in Mohamud Sanu.  Finally Brady is Brady and he will be a pissed off Brady when he returns.  He is a top five guy easy when on the field and you will have him for the stretch run. 

As far as the rest of the guys on my list, Winston in particular looks primed for a sizeable leap after a very solid rookie year.  Don't forger he has a terrific pair of wideouts in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, plus a receiving back in Charles Sims, and an emerging tight end in Austin Seferian-Jenkins.  Mariota is in the same boat as he was shockingly good as a rookie after doubts about him coming from a spread system in college.  He has the speed to help on the ground as well but durability is a question mark.  I already told you about how Cousins won me a league a year ago and he should be ready to build on his emergence with Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, and DeSean Jackson.  Also yes I did include RGIII despite me hammering him the last few seasons.  His draft price is through the floor but he gets a fresh start in Cleveland with a good batch of weapons himself. 

QB's To Avoid

Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Tyrod Taylor

-As far as Rodgers and Newton are concerned, their inflated and high drafts costs (in Round 2) make them bad investments in single-passer leagues.  Also I have to see Newton repeat his 2015 performance to completely buy into it again.  Wilson meanwhile threw the ball like never before last season but that was out of neccessity as the Seahawks couldn't run the ball.  Pete Carroll has stated he wants the offense to be balanced again so look for a drop in throws and in turn numbers.  Luck ios a major talent no doubt but that line looks very iffy again and the threat of injury and high interceptions remains a problem.  Finally Palmer has two major knee surgeries in his past and I don't want to bank on his health and Taylor is a limited passer who might get too much attention in the fantasy football community based on his running aspect.

 

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