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Wednesday, June 15, 2016

2016 FANTASY FOOTBALL QB RANKINGS: A FIRST LOOK

We begin our initial tour among the respective skill positions as 2016 fantasy football gets into more clearer focus.  As always we begin with the quarterbacks who we once again suggest you look for value.  Use your first two picks on a running back/receiver and then strike for value among guys who qualify there such as Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, and dare we say it due to the four-game ban, Tom Brady. 

1.  Aaron Rodgers:  Rodgers goes back to the top of the QB list after ceding it to Andrew Luck a year ago.  We all know how that worked out.  The Green Bay veteran remains in his prime and gets ace TD machine Jordy Nelson back.
2.  Cam Newton:  There is some "outlier" concern here after Newton blew WAY past his career norms across the board outside of the running game.  Cut off about 5 passing TD's and some yardage and that is still first round material.  Yes we have been big critics but can't argue with anything about 2015.
3.  Andrew Luck:  Depending how much your league holds the disaster that was 2015 against Andrew Luck, you could be looking at a HUGE value play.  This is the same guy who reached the 40-TD mark and contributed nicely on the ground that put him in the number 1 overall conversation after the 2014 season.  While we don't like the uptick in INT's and the awful Indy offensive line possibly leading to more injuries, Luck is still as good as it gets.
4.  Ben Roethlisberger:  With the Steelers throwing it more than ever, Big Ben only has to stay healthy to reach 30-passing TD's.  He wants to go for a 2-pt. conversation after every score?  Even better.
5.  Russell Wilson:  There is more outlier concern here than with Cam Newton as Pete Carroll already has said the Seahawks will go back to running it a ton this season and only wound up throwing it at a high rate a year ago due to the absence of Marshawn Lynch.  Don't overlook the durability here however as Wilson has not missed a start since becoming a pro.
6.  Drew Brees:  For the fourth season in a row, Brees' passing TD total dropped.  While he was still very good in 2015, he is slipping a bit and missed a game with injury.  Could be entering into a danger zone here but on the flip side Brees gets some new receiving toys in Michael Thomas and even bigger, Coby Fleener.
7.  Eli Manning:  This is the supreme value play among all fantasy football QB's this season.  Eli never comes with an expensive price tag and he has reached the 30-TD passing mark in both seasons with Ben McAdoo running the offense.  Manning now gets an ace rookie wideout in Sterling Shepard and a returning to health Victor Cruz to join Odell Beckham Jr.  This could be big. 
8.  Blake Bortles:  What a tremendous jump in production from Blake Bortles in his sophomore campaign in 2015.  The kid has an excellent trio of receivers to throw to in Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and tight end Julius Thomas and he can run a little too.  The discrimination against Jacksonville players should help keep the cost down.  The guy is for real. 
9.  Carson Palmer:  Stay clear here as Palmer has had two knee reconstructions and really is getting up there in age despite the plethora of receiving weapons he has. 
10. Tony Romo:  Risky here but also a possible huge payoff as Romo has Dez Bryant and company to throw to behind a mammoth Dallas O-line.  Always have pushed the value price tag here and the cost is now in dirt cheap territory.  Just make sure you have a top backup. 
11. Tom Brady:  Four game suspension once again is on the table for training camp and this time it looks like it will stick.  That means Brady's draft price will drop a lot and that puts him in value play mode.  Rememeber a pissed off Brady is a fantasy football MVP-worthy player. 
12. Philip Rivers:  Like with Eli Manning, Philip Rivers season after seasons is a major value.  The guy doesn't get enough credit for his annually big numbers and now he gets Travis Benjamin and a return to health Keenan Allen putting him in a nice passing spot. 
13. Kirk Cousins:  This guy paid off big down the stretch last season as Cousins unloaded a big batch of passing scores and yardage totals in cementing his standing as the QB of the present and future for the Redskins.  Some will doubt the breakout but that just makes Cousins another good value play if you wait on drafting your passer. 
14. Derek Carr:  This is where I would start putting the following names in backup territory in single-passer formats.  Carr no doubt had an uptick in production in 2015 but he seemed reluctant to throw deep. 
15. Marcus Mariota:  Showed he was more than capable of being an NFL QB in a solid rookie campaign.  Tennessee beefed up the weak O-line and Mariota can help both on the ground and in the passing game. 
16. Matthew Stafford:  Losing Calvin Johnson is big trouble for Stafford's fantasy football numbers and we all know how sketchy the guy can be. 
17. Andy Dalton
18. Matt Ryan:  Very ugly season for the usually dependable Ryan in 2015 and that makes us a bit leery going back to him in 2016.  A solid enough bounce back is possible as Ryan remains in his prime but he doesn't seem to like the Kyle Shanahan offense. 
19. Jameis Winston
20. Jay Cutler
21. Ryan Tannehill
22. Brock Osweiler:  Got a ton of money for only 7 career starts which was shocking but Osweiler has a big arm and a lot of tools to work with in Houston.  Could be a huge value play if he finds quick comfort in the offense. 
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick
24. Sam Bradford
25. Tyrod Taylor
26. Teddy Bridgwater:  Like the offensive cast but Bridgewater can't throw deep which tremendously limits his upside. 
27. Robert Griffin III
28. Joe Flacco
29. Alex Smith
30. Jared Goff:  Whatever you do, avoid the rookie 2016 QB class. 
31. Carson Wentz
32. Colin Kaepernick
33. Mark Sanchez


1 comment:

  1. Interesting list...as I read through it, I got less and less confident after the first 4 or 5 players. There are so many question marks. May have to reach early for a top QB and stock up on RB's later in the draft this season.

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