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Friday, May 27, 2016

FANTASY BASEBALL WRAPUP: THURSDAY

Gerrit Cole:  5 IP 7 H 0 ER 3 BB 5 K with an ERA of 2.53.  The manifestation of Cole continues as his K/9 is now a very mediocre 7.43, a number which the pitcher himself is proud of as he openly tries to pitch to more contact.  The ERA is sparkling and the .318 BAIP is just a bit lucky so it is working for Cole.  You can be annoyed as a owner due to the drop in K's but with nothing else. 

Mark Trumbo:  1/4 with his 14th HR while hitting .279.  Give it enough time and a hitter will always roll back to his standard batting averages unless he has big speed to beat BABIP curves.  Classic case here with Trumbo who was over .300 for awhile but his .321 BABIP is dropping.  Outside of that, the power has been huge just like his old Arizona days and I am as shocked as anyone that I am benefitting from this as a past critic. 

George Springer:  2/4 with 2 home runs (11 for season) while hitting .270.  The 24 percent K rate pretty much matches his 2015 output there so a bit disappointed in that respect but Springer is right on schedule in terms of rising close to outfielder 1 status.  Needs to add some more steals to cement that though if the average remains shaky.

Luis Valbuena:  2/3 with his 5th HR while hitting .220.  Fourth straight game with a home run from Valbuena and this is something we saw last season in terms of the all-or-nothing power swing.  In AL-only formats I guess you could take a shot while the homers are flying out but back-to-back O'fers are as far as I would take this.

Lance McCullers:  5 IP 1 H 1 ER 6 BB 10 K with an ERA of 4.60.  It is like an old A.J. Burnett Florida Marlins start.  McCullers has a Kerry Wood arm with massive K potential but like Wood, has trouble with control with a BB/9 over 3.00 and of course poor health. 

Bryce Harper:  1/4 with his 12th HR while hitting .246.  Harper had been in a big slump lately.....not Giancarlo Stanton slump....but a slump nonetheless.  A few things here:  one is that Harper's .230 BABIP is the main reason for his trouble as his K/9 of 18.3 is almost 2 points down from his monster 2015.  Once the luck turns around as it will (Harper's BABIP was .369 and .352 from 2014-15), he will be back to his MVP ways.  Your fooling yourself if you try a buy low though.

Aledmys Diaz:  1/4 with his 7th HR while hitting .329.  Here we are now in almost June and Diaz is going the way of Nomar Mazara with the average/power thing.  The shortstop eligibility is the key here of course and that alone has Diaz as a top five option there.  Been saying he would cool off for awhile but it simply has not happened.  Maybe I should stop and throw my hands up. 

Joe Ross:  7 IP 6 H 1 ER 1 BB 4 K with an ERA of 2.52.  Joe's brother Tyson now wants to be him.

Jonathan Villar:  2/4 with his second HR while hitting .295.  Great credit goes to Villar who couldn't hit a lick when he first came up and now he is doing a terrific leadoff impression.  Already among the most profitable value plays of the season, Villar could be a prime trade chip in July. 

Ryan Braun:  1/3 with his 9th HR while hitting .361.  Can't knock the production but only the character. 

Carlos Gonzalez:  2/4 with his 6th HR while hitting .287.  Slow go of it for CarGo who still is not running and the power on a per game basis is way down.  Of course he went all Hank Aaron on us last July through the end of the season so no reason to panic yet.

Trevor Story:  1/4 with his 13th HR while hitting .272.  Story continues to hold onto his average and hit for power as this "Story" has gone on longer then anticipated.  Not that I doubted the power but I thought we would be looking at .250 now. 

David Ortiz:  2/4 with his 12th HR while hitting .337.  I will call it now.  Ortiz will have 10 home runs at this point next May.  Forget retirement.  And no one will want to draft him again too like always. 

Starlin Castro:  1/4 with his 6th HR while hitting .264.  Ehhh.  Castro is losing his average and has been another guy who stopped running in his upper 20's.  It is almost now like hitters think it is cool to just stop moving on the bases at that age.  Thank you very much Mike Trout. 

J.A. Happ:  7 IP 3 H 1 ER 3 BB 5 K with an ERA of 3.20.  A lefty against the Yankees is always a profitable situation.  The only numbers you should focus on here is the lucky .263 BABIP which shows in the XFIP and FIP ERA's both over 4.00.  It will turn ugly.  Trust me. 

C.C. Sabbathia:  7 IP 2 H 0 ER 1 BB 7 K with an ERA of 2.83.  All right.  No doubt Sabbathia is pitching well and he was up to 93 in this one which is his highest velocity in two years.  Keep in mind Sabbathia got help for alcohol troubles at the end of last season and a clear mind could be helping him as well.  Proceed cautiously but I will hedge and say try him out if the matchup is right. 

Jose Fernandez:  7 IP 6 H 1 ER 1 BB 12 K with an ERA of 2.82.  If Fernandez is not giving up walks, you are getting nothing out of him.

Drew Smyly:  6 IP 6 H 5 ER 1 BB 4 K with an ERA of 3.92.  There could be a dead arm deal going on here as Smyly missed almost all of last season.  Hold the fort here as Smyly is terrific when all is right.  In fact try a buy low. 

 

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