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Saturday, May 7, 2016

FANTASY BASEBALL WRAPUP: FRIDAY

Brandon Crawford:  1/4 with his 4th HR while hitting .255.  Now that he is out for the next 6-8 weeks, J.J, Hardy can sit back and watch what he once was.

Madison Bumgarner:  7.1 IP 7 H 3 ER 1 BB 10 K with an ERA of 3.14.  The WHIP is still high at 1.33 but the uptick in K's recently shows that Bumgarner is rounding into his usual ace form. 

Noah Syndegaard:  6 IP 6 H 2 ER 2 BB 5 K with an ERA of 2.58.  Gave up two more stolen bases which is becoming a major problem for Syndegaard.  Don't think so?  Try looking at it as when Syndegaard gives up a single, it pretty much is a double since he can't keep ANYONE one base.  If the Mets have to tinker with his windup, it could lead to an uptick in runs given up. 

Drew Pomeranz:  5 IP 1 H 0 ER 3 BB 5 K with an ERA of 2.12.  Your welcome for touting Pomeranz during the winter.  I mean it was obvious though.  Guy has always been able to strike batters out and moving to Petco Park unleashed his highest impact in terms of stuff.  Road starts remain have to be studied though. 

Corey Dickerson:  1/3 with his 6th HR while hitting .198.  It is nice to see Dickerson hitting home runs which he has done since the start of the season at a decent rate but the average is putrid and goes to show you how much Coors Field helped him during his tenure there.  Remember Dickeson was about a .265 hitter away from Coors so this makes total sense and is why we downgraded him from an low-end OF 1 to a firm 3 after the move to Tampa Bay.

Chris Archer:  6 IP 5 H 0 ER 2 BB 6 K with an ERA of 4.23.  Archer remains a firm buy low but that window is closing fast.  Talk up the 1.42 WHIP and get it done before his next start.  The BABIP remains firmly in the unlucky territory which is a great deal of the reason the ratios are skewed. 

Jung-Ho Kang:  2/4 with 2 home runs (2 for season) while hitting .500.  Boy does this guy know how to make a debut.  Kang was really coming into his own last season before his leg shattered and he was showing that his video-game numbers from Korea were not a total mirage.  In addition, Kang has some speed but don't count on much in the way of steals for awhile as he doesn't want to risk any more trouble with the knee.  Pick him up everywhere.

Francisco Liriano:  7 IP 5 H 2 ER 2 BB 10 K with an ERA of 3.60.  I told you all two weeks ago to give Liriano the benefit of the doubt through his early struggles as he has been so good for so long in Pittsburgh.  Still can't believe "benefit of the doubt" and "Liriano" were mentioned in the same sentence but no one can argue with his SP 2 performances since 2014.

Carlos Martinez:  3.1 IP 3 H 1 ER 3 BB 2 K with an ERA of 2.61.  And so it begins.  Martinez exited with what the Cards are called fatigue but that is code for "his arm is losing juice and fast."  Guys I have been saying going back to last season that Martinez was a gigantic risk for 2016 due to the shoulder trouble that flared up as he went into uncharted innings territory.  Also remember that I have told you countless times that shoulder injuries tend to flare up again and that is likely what is going on here.  Simply put Martinez was not worth the risk and now a DL stint is possible.  Also one has to wonder if Martinez can handle the workload on his arm of being a starter.  Future closer or reliever?  All on the table long-term if this keeps going on. 

Brandon Drury:  1/5 with his 6th HR while hitting .300.  Drury continues to pound the baseball and that means a Stock Watch is on its way. 

Zack Greinke:  6 IP 7 H 2 ER 1 BB 8 K with an ERA of 5.15.  The K rate is pointing upwards sharply the lately which is nice but once again Greinke gave up more hits and walks then innings pitched which is no Bueno.  Greinke has been leaking velocity the last few seasons which cause the home run rate to jump and that is now more of a problem then ever moving to Chase Field from Los Angeles Dodgers territory.  Ace numbers could still be possible by the end of the season but looking more and more unlikely. 

Carlos Correa:  3/3 with his 5th HR while hitting .288.  I mean did you really think Correa was not going to explode when he was struggling a bit in April?  What a ridiculous talent the kid is and his lock as a first round gem will likely be in place for years. 

Oswaldo Arcia:  1/2 with his 4th HR while hitting .281.  Arcia won't hit .280 for much longer but the Twins are giving him yet another chance to stick and show off the always impressive power.  Arcia works nicely in five outfielder formats and especially in AL-only but anything less leave him be. 

Jose Abreu:  1/4 with his 5th HR while hitting .243.  If there were any sort of buy low window on Abreu, his too is closing fast.  Honestly though Abreu has been so hyped and rightfully so for so long that you were never stealing him away. 

Mat Latos:  5 IP 7 H 4 ER 2 BB 4 K with an ERA of 2.62.  Couple of shaky starts lately might be suggesting that opposing hitters are beginning to adjust to this new Mat Latos.  You were hopefully just riding out the good streak of starts anyway and using him just as an SP 5.  Anything more and no one has sympathy for you if it all goes wrong. 

David Ortiz:  1/5 with his 7th HR while hitting .313.  What do you know Ortiz hit a home run against the New York Yankees. 

Jacoby Ellsbury:  0/0 with 2 steals (9 for season) while hitting .260.  Of course just as Ellsbury was starting to put forth some very nice fantasy baseball numbers the last week, he gets injured yet again.  Luckily this time it is just a day-to-day thing with the hip but day-to-day for Ellsbury often is week-to-week. 

Michael Pineda:  6 IP 8 H 2 ER 1 BB 4 K with an ERA of 5.73.  Can't help but think that all those years of shoulder trouble has now robbed Pineda of his old explosiveness.  The results have been terrible this season and the K Rate is way down in 2016 compared to 2015.  I would not even chance a Pineda start given these developments. 

Kevin Pillar:  1/4 with his second HR while hitting .296.  The Blue Jays were way too harsh and impatient in yanking Pillar from the top of the lineup after a quiet first two weeks.  That put a sledgehammer to his fantasy baseball value as now he can't run nearly as much or score as many runs.  The guy has shown that he can both hit for average and some power with the all the steals so there is a lot to work with here.  If this keeps up the Jays will have no choice but to put him back near the top of the lineup. 

Jose Bautista:  1/4 with his 6th HR while hitting .217.  We have been calling for Bautista's demise for a few years now given his advanced age and it really looks like that this could be a major factor in the ugly average.  The power is obviously why you get invested but that power is not going to look as pretty with an average residing where it is now.  Not everyone can age like David Ortiz. 

Kenta Maeda:  6 IP 2 H 2 ER 4 BB 7 K with an ERA of 1.66.  Maeda is back on track after his first shaky start of the season.  What is funny is that control is his best asset yet he walked four in this one.  Hands down the best pitching bargain of the season.

Marcus Stroman:  7 IP 8 H 2 ER 2 BB 8 K with an ERA of 3.60.  Stroman danced around trouble with the use of the strikeout and he has been ramping things up there his last two outings.  There are few young pitchers I have talked up more than Stroman as he continues his march toward ace status. 

Joey Votto:  1/2 with his 4th HR while hitting .230.   I keep saying Votto is coming around but he is still far away from his customary lines and rates.  He is not old by any means which makes a buy low still a smart idea but the K Rate has shot up to 23.6 percent which is 4 points higher than last year. 

Brandon Phillips:  1/4 with his 4th HR while hitting .292.  Phillips is going nuts right now and this from a guy who is not a huge pure power hitter.  Pretty much everyone wrote Phillips off prior to 2014 but he has engineered a tremendous turnaround in his mid-30's.  Believe it or not Phillips is looking like a very safe second base option for the duration of 2016 again. 

 

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