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Wednesday, May 4, 2016

FANTASY BASEBALL TREND/MIRAGE NICK CASTELLANOS 3B DETROIT TIGERS

While never considered a cream of the crop prospect, Detroit Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos has gotten a decent amount of hype the last few seasons as he made his way up the minor league ladder.  That would be understandable after Castellanos was drafted 12th overall in the first round of the 2010 draft.  As he developed, there was the projection that Castellanos could someday be a .300-hitting/25-home run third baseman for the team which added to the sleeper appeal going back to 2012.  Like with most of these stories, Castellanos struggled badly at times during his first few forays into the majors with the Tigers after a cup of coffee debut in 2013.  Both in 2014 and 2015, Castellanos failed to hit even .260 and his high in home runs was last year's moderate 15.  Clearly disappointing numbers but Castellanos was still only going to be 24 entering into the 2016 season and he finished 2015 strong which put forth the "give him one more try" theme. 

Fast forward to today and Castellanos has been one of the very early positives on the fantasy baseball season as he went into Tuesdays games with a glowing .361 average with 4 home runs and a steal in only 89 at-bats.  The easy assumption would be that Castellanos had finally put his talents together and was showing he successfully had adjusted to major league pitching after his early struggles.  So the question is how legit is what we are seeing from Castellanos this early in the season and will it continue through the remainder of 2016?  As always we dig into the advanced stats which help supply the answer.  The first thing that stands out which is the most alarming is the ridiculously lucky .441 BABIP.  That number is insanely on the lucky side and in no way, shape, or form is sustainable.  In fact a BABIP over .360 is tough to maintain which shows you how ridiculous the amount of luck Castellanos has received.  Things get even more stark when you see that Castellanos has struck out in 25.8 of his at-bats which is even HIGHER then his 2015 mark of 25.5 percent when he batted .255.  Thus it is easy to see how Castellanos is headed for a major fall and could even go back to his mediocre ways the last two seasons.  Anyone who owns Castellanos needs to run out and try to sell him high to anyone who will listen.  There is zero chance his April numbers will stay where they are or even be close.  This is as big a fluke as you can get.

TREND OR MIRAGE:  MIRAGE

 

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