Sunday, May 29, 2016


There was not a single player outside of maybe Mike Trout that was the single MUST-HAVE batter or pitcher for 2016 fantasy baseball than Houston Astros shortstop gem Carlos Correa.  After coming up at the age of 20 and proceeded to put up monster first round-worthy numbers for the Astros that included incredibly rare power/speed talents at the always shallow shortstop spot, Correa carried as much hype as any young player to come down the pike since the Los Angeles Angels outfielder.  As a result, Correa wound up on average as a late first round pick in almost all fantasy baseball formats as visions of at least 25/25/.315 danced in his prospective owners' heads.  There was instant regret for those who didn't get the chance to land Correa, so great was the battle for his skills.  Fast forward to present day and let's just say that the hype has not matched the production with the 2016 season almost two months in the books. As a result, there is some buyer's remorse concerning Corrrea and the thought already that maybe the fantasy baseball community was a bit quick in labeling him a star before completing even one full major league campaign.

Going into Sunday's games, Correra carried around with him the following numbes which again have fallen short of the anticipated mark:

7 HR
22 R
22 RBI
8 SB

Now getting 7 home runs and 8 steals from your fantasy baseball shortstop is nothing to sneer at and truth be told those are very good power/speed numbers for any hitter.  The problem of course is the gross .241 average and the drop in runs and RBI.  As always, let's dig in a bit deeper and find out what is going on.

As far as the average is concerned, Correa's .241 mark is actually legitimate as his BABIP is a neutral .300.  Consider that Correa's BABIP was .296 a year ago when he batted .279 which means what you see is what you get there.  Instead we turn to the K rate which is where the problems begin.  Right now Correa is striking out in 25.0 percent of his at-bats which is way above the 18.1 percent he achieved as a rookie.  Correa is actually walking more this season then last which means his strikeout issues are the main reaon why he is struggling with his average.  One could argue that the kid is going through a sophomore slump which makes sense as most young hitters do.  The uptick in K's is the easy way to see if that is the case and with the luck neutral, it works. 

Overall here, Carlos Correa remains a crazy talent at a shallow position whose power/speed game remains invaluable.  The average will eventually come around as Correa gets more in tune with his swing again and you can forget about buying low here given the draft cost.  Patience is the word. 

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