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Tuesday, May 10, 2016

FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: CARLOS GOMEZ OUTFIELDER HOUSTON ASTROS

One of the more talked about trades which turned out to be a non-trade leading up to the July 31 deadlien last summer was the New York Mets reportedly reaching aggreement with the Milwaukee Brewers to acquire outfielder Carlos Gomez for a package highlighted by Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler.  With Flores crying on the field as the word got to him about the deal through social media, the whole night took on a circus quality.  Within hours the deal was off as the Mets pulled out due to health concerns regarding Gomez and the Brewers then flipped him to the Houston Astros who seemed unconcerned about the five-tool outfielder's standing.  Well in hindsight maybe the Astros should have been more prudent in looking over Gomez as not only was he a complete bust the last two months of 2015, he has started the 2016 season in the same ugly fashion.  Going into Tuesday's games, Gomez was sitting with a horrible .210 average with 0 home runs and 3 stolen bases.  A 20/35 guy for three years running prior to 2015 turned Gomez into a top tier fantasy baseball outfielder and a five-category stud who fought through some early contact issues with a few different organizations to find a home in Milwaukee.  Perhaps the alarms should have sounded more in 2015 when Gomez came down with a string of nagging injuries that dogged him all season.  With things just getting worse when he made it to Houston, Gomez sank to just a .255 average with 12 home runs and 17 steals.  In other words outfielder 3 numbers.  Today Gomez is not even in the outfielder 3 realm given his putrid numbers and at the age of 30, we now have to start to wonder if he is already eroding and losing his past supreme athleticism. 

In digging into his 2016 numbers, some things clearly stand out.  The first is that Gomez can't hit the broad side of a barn as his K rate is an unfathomable 32.7 percent.  That is a beyond horrific number and it shows the gigantic holes in Gomez' swing right now.  It is a major red flag when a hitter sees a major spike in K rate as something is clearly amiss either with eyesight or bat speed has slowed.  With no mention of Gomez heading to get his eyes checked, the bat speed issue becomes central and very concerning.  Bat speed never returns and only gets worse and Gomez was already a high K guy even during his big seasons with the Brewers.  In addition, Gomez is not walking at all as evidenced by his pathetic 4.7 BB/9 rate.  That won't get it done and only exacerbates his average problems.  Perhaps most alarming is that believe it or not Gomez has a lucky BABIP of .323.  That means his .210 average should be WORSE.  Flat out Gomez is an utter disaster and is among the worst performing regular hitters in all of baseball.  We would not entertaing a buy low in a million years and instead will push away from Gomez other then maybe making him a backup.  Uglieness all around. 

 

2 comments:

  1. I've considered dropping him but I'm gonna stick it our another month. Stories like this scream past PED use imho

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  2. It is funny you say this as I was going to include that but I try to avoid speculation. Gomez does look like a classic case of a guy whose career was in major trouble after bombing out with the Mets and Twins and then taking off in Milwaukee out of nowhere. Sort of like Dee Gordon in 2015 with Miami. Also the injuries are a red flag.

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