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Tuesday, April 26, 2016

FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: KYLE SEAGER 3B SEATTLE MARINERS

For those who are religious followers of yours truly (and you should since you would win your league if you did), you would know that I have my favorites.  Guys who I make it a point to draft each and every season and who I forever have a soft spot in my heart.  Some guys who come to mind who have been in this illustrious group include Cole Hamels, Paul Konerko, Adrian Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler, any New York Met (yes I have a fan perspective bias), and perhaps most glorified, the Minnesota Twins' Torii Hunter.  Well also included in this group is Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager who has been the poster child for underrated and productive which gets him a place on my roster each and every season.  Now with the massive influx of superstar third baseman, I admit I moved away from Seager due to my striking it gold with Manny Machado in 2015 but I would still own him in a second if given the opportunity.  All the guy has done for the price of pennies on the dollar was be a guaranteed source of 25 home runs, 80 RBI, a handful of steals, and a .265-ish average.  Enough to be a firm top ten fantasy baseball third baseman year in and year out. 

Well 2016 has certainly had its early challenges for Seager as an epically cold start at the plate has many questioning his fantasy baseball worthiness.  Of course one can understand that thinking when you look and see Seager toting around a comical .134 batting average with 3 home runs and 9 RBI in 75 at-bats.  Saying Seager is a bit slow out of the gates would be a gross understatement but perspective of course is needed in situations like this.  The first thing to note is that Seager is only 28 and still early in his prime years.  That means we can rule out any age-related decline.  Even more important is the fact Seager is suffering from some incredibly poor BABIP luck as one can see with his hard to fathom .118 mark in that category.  I for one can't remember seeing such a low and unlucky BABIP this late into the season before and it goes to show you that Seager has not gotten one iota of a break when he puts the bat on the ball/.  Want more evidence?  Seager's 17.3 percent K rate is not much out of line with his career norms so again we can say he has gotten unlucky and nothing more.  Thus I can make the argument that Seager actually represents a tremendous BUY LOW candidate for all the reasons I just talked about.  The luck will surely change before you know it and the average will climb to go along with the power.  Seaher is much too good a player to continue on like this and he no doubt is a victim of bad luck and nothing more. 
 

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