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Friday, April 29, 2016

FANTASY BASEBALL CRISIS POINT: DALLAS KEUCHEL SP HOUSTON ASTROS

For those owning stock in reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, Tuesday was not a night that brought forth a turnaround to what has been a very shaky start to his 2016 season.  Coming off a dominant 2015 campaign that saw Keuchel shoot past his career-bests by a mile with his 2.48 ERA and over 200 strikeouts, many bought back in again for this season in thinking he was a firm fantasy baseball ace pitcher.  Anyone who has been reading my critiques on Keuchel going back to the beginning of this past winter would know that we advised re-investing in him for more than a few reasons.  Chief among them was the fact Keuchel's 2015 statistical haul was far and away better then anything he had done previously and historically speaking, a player who goes into outlier territory often has a sizable drop in numbers the following season.  So far this is what has gone on with Keuchel as Tuesday's 5 ER bomb raised his season ERA to a very shaky 4.41 and his WHIP to an ugly 1.41.  Pretty much everything has gone wrong as Keuchel's K/9 rate has dropped from 2015's 8.38 to this season's 7.44.  In addition, Keuchel's BB/9 has gone from last season's 1.98 to this year's 3.58.  A .330 BABIP which is in the unlucky range has hurt Keuchel as well but even his XFIP ERA of 3.53 is not great compared to 2015 which goes to show you how less effective the guy has been.  This is no shock to yours truly as I saw this coming and predicted Keuchel would be more SP 2 then ace.  Remember that outlier campaigns pretty much never get repeated as we are seeing once again in this case. 

 

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