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Monday, February 22, 2016

2016 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: YOVANI GALLARDO SP BALTIMORE ORIOLES

It probably took much longer then he anticipated by Yovani Gallardo finally found a home in free agency on Saturday as he signed a three-year deal worth $35 million with the Baltimore Orioles.  It was a decent haul for Gallardo considering he is a clear step of two below his former 200-K/near-ace self during his early days with the Milwaukee Brewers but nonetheless there are still quite a bunch of issues concerning his fantasy baseball value going forward into the 2016 season.  So with that said let's dig in a bit more on Gallardo and see where he is headed with his numbers. 

As we noted earlier, Yovani Gallardo is a much different pitcher today then he was just a few years earlier with the Brewers.  While he still is young at the age of 29 (even though it seems like he has been around forever), Gallardo has reinvented himself on the fly in terms of his stuff and his approach.  When he first came up with the Brewers as a very highly touted prospect, Gallardo showcased a blazing fastball and knee-buckling offspeed stuff that allowed him to rack up 200-plus strikeouts for four straight seasons from 2009 through 2012.  Gallardo also posted an ERA in the mid-3.00 range each of those years as well which put him into near-ace status in fantasy baseball.  Even during that heyday however, there were some pronounced warts concerning Gallardo, with the most pronounced being his annually horrible control.  Gallardo always battled the walk monster and his pitch efficiency was never good either which resulted in him having to come out of starts earlier then anticipated and in the end costing him wins. Gallardo's high in wins for a season is 17 and only twice in his career has he won more than 15 games despite all those strikeouts.  In addition, Gallardo's career WHIP is ugly at an elevated 1.32 and even during his most dominant seasons, he would hover in the high 1.20 range or even higher.  That is why Gallardo's ERA's was never stellar or under the 3.00 mark due to all the free passes he gave up, with a decent number of those runners coming around to score.  A very good but flawed pitcher was the mantle Gallardo earned. 

Things began to change somewhat in 2013 as Gallardo began to see a decrease in his K rate as he went from 9.00 K/9 the season prior all the way down to a shaky 7.17 mark which is right on the league average.  With Gallardo being more hittable then ever before, his ERA went past the 4.00 mark at 4.18 and his WHIP remained very nasty at 1.36.  Even worse, Gallardo struck out just 144 batters which was a drop from 2012's 200.  This was not just a one-year dip either as Gallardo followed that up with a much better 3.51 ERA in 2014 but with again an even lower K rate at 6.83 which resulted in just 146 K's.  This was now a firm trend as Gallardo was no longer a power pitcher and instead was turning into a finesse guy who had to get outs via contact.  Ending up with the Texas Rangers in the American League was scary going into 2015 due to Gallardo's diminished stuff and the K rate somehow sank even more to a horrible 5.91.  Gallardo was able to survive though with a 3.42 ERA as his hit rate was decent but he continued to struggle with control with a 3.32 BB/9.  That put Gallardo into free agency where teams were not beating down his door trying to bring him in.  Now he signs back into the American League and this time in the worst division in the game for a pitcher in the AL East with the Orioles.  On the surface alone that is a very bad thing for Gallardo;s outlook considering the potency of the offenses in that division and the fact his K rate is so horrendous and the walk rate still nasty.  With Gallardo unable to get outs with the K anymore, he is prime to be beaten up pretty good in the division.  It could get scary bad. 

When you put it all together, Yovani Gallardo is a guy you really should avoid altogether in 2016 fantasy baseball.  We were ahead of the curve here in labeling Gallardo a BUST going back to 2014 and now he is even more shaky then ever.  Look right past him right by in your draft 

2016 PROJECTION:  12-11 3.93 ERA 1.33 WHIP 145 K 

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1 comment:

  1. I thought this was at this point an organisation tendency seeing that Gallardo seemed to be not a power pitcher in addition to as a substitute seemed to be starting to be some sort of finesse gentleman exactly who must receive outs by using call.

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