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Saturday, February 13, 2016

2016 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: KHRIS DAVIS OUTFIELDER OAKLAND A'S

There was some late winter action on the eve of spring training on Friday night, as the Milwaukee Brewers sent outfielder Khris Davis to the Oakland A's for two prospects which were highlighted by well-regarded catcher Jacob Nottingham.  While Davis is by no means a star, he likely helped more than a few fantasy baseball teams lock up a league title during the second half of 2015 on the literal strength of a major power surge during those last three months.  As we look toward 2016, let's see what Davis has in store statistically. 

As I noted earlier, Khris Davis is not a star by any means and in actuality is pretty much a power hitting specialist in terms of his fantasy baseball impact.  With power in such increasingly short supply these days however, Davis no doubt has a place on any team in the fantasy baseball community.  After a rough start to his 2015 campaign, Davis rallied big time as a big force down the stretch as he put the finishing touches on the following numbers:

.247
25 HR
66 RBI
54 R
6 SB

The 25 home runs really stand out here and Davis actually hit 21 of those in his big second half which titled the scales in some leagues for those who took him aboard.  One such owner who undertook that strategy was yours truly who needed a power boost in the worst way last July and who would up sticking with him in my winning Experts League team the rest of the way.  Be that as it may however, I won't be chasing Davis in this season unless he falls into my lap as a backup outfielder in the very late rounds.  Even then I very well will take a pass as late round picks should be about upside and Davis has none as he is already 28.  Be that as it may, let's get back to the numbers.

Now entering into his fourth Major League season, Davis has hit 22 and 27 home runs the last two years so his baseline is established in between that area.  Davis has very impressive natural power but keep in mind he gets a ballpark downgrade moving from Milwaukee to spacious O.Co Coliseum in Oakland.  That will make repeating last season's 27 home runs unlikely and Davis should be graded out more in the 22-25 range instead with about 65 RBI.  A .323 OBP was all right last season but Davis has yet to pass 70 runs in his first three seasons and even that number is likely a reach for 2016. 

As far as the steals and batting average, let's take them one at a time.  The average was ugly at .247 in 2015 and for his career now Davis is at a shaky .250.  He looks like your classic high K/solid power hitting slugger and that won't change now.  The major drawback here is that Davis struck out in an insane 27.7 of his at-bats a year ago and going to a new league with new pitchers will not likely change that mark.  That means unless he gets BABIP help, Davis will struggle to bat even .250 which is a problem.  In addition, the six stolen bases Davis had a year ago pretty much represent what he is fully capable of doing there as he simply has average to below-average speed. 

When you put it all together, Khris Davis is nothing but a bench option you can use in a pinch in three-outfielder mixed league formats or an OF 4 or 5 in five outfielder setups.  Again we respect the power here but Davis overall has a bit too any holes in terms of his fantasy baseball impact for our liking. 

2016 PROJECTION:  .245 23 HR 63 RBI 56 R 5 SB 

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