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Friday, February 5, 2016

2016 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT PRIMER: OUTFIELDERS TO AVOID

Yesterday we shared with you the fantasy baseball outfielders for 2016 that we were targeting in drafts.  Today we go the other way in identifying the outfielders we will take a pass on this season.

Ryan Braun:  By now you all know we are not fans of Ryan Braun here given his gutless steroid usage and denials, rampant injuries, and drop in numbers in 2014.  However truth be told Braun came back and had a very good comeback season in 2015 but more injury questions continue to dog the now 32-year-old.  Having undergone back surgery months ago, Braun is now admitting he won't be ready to go at the start of spring training.  In addition, Braun has a long history of day-to-day injuries and could lose his steals quickly as he ages.  Major headache worth avoiding completely. 

Melky Cabrera:  Did not much of anything after some mild intrigue when Cabrera signed with the White Sox in free agency and now is just an aging empty batting average.  Basically Cabrera is just a younger version of himself before steroids. 

Chris Davis:  He has outfield eligibility this season to go with first base but still not interested.  The power is insane no doubt and we all can benefit there greatly but the average is a major liability.  Forget the .260 Davis hit in 2015 as that is an outlier for him given the massive strikeout totals he annually puts up.  Wouldn't shock us in the least if Davis was a .230 hitter this season which takes shine away from the power. 

Alex Gordon:  Very good real-life player given the high OBP and excellent defense but Gordon is not just an ordinary offensive guy in his 30's who has lost his steals and has seen the average be an issue. 

Steven Souza Jr.:  Yes the power/speed numbers look nice but a .220 average will drag you down in that category. 

Hanley Ramirez:  No longer eligible at shortstop means most of the value is shot from this aging and increasingly injured former number 1 pick overall.  Things are getting so bad here as that Ramirez has lost his steals and his average has plummeted badly as he becomes pretty much an all-or-nothing power hitter.

Brett Gardner:  A guy known for speed who is now in this 30's and who has tailed off drastically during the second half of the last two seasons is not someone you should be interested in much.  Yes Gardner has upped his home runs the last two years but his days of stealing even 30 bases have been finished for awhile. 

Jacoby Ellsbury:  Not a chance in the world would we bother with this fading former outfielder 1.  Even at a greatly reduced draft price, Ellsbury remains as big an injury risk as there is in the game and like with Brett Gardner, will see more steals dry up as he goes along.  Also that expected power push when arriving in Yankee Stadium never happened and in fact just got worse. 

Cameron Maybin:  Something tells me that Maybin's 2015 season when he finally did SOMETHING positive after years of disappointment was a fluke.  All you need to know is that the Atlanta Braves were not buying it as they sold high on him during the winter. 

Colby Ramus:  Never been a fan of his and that is mainly due to the .230 average Rasmus brings with decent power.  Remember that the hit you take in average from a guy like this takes away the value of the power a bit. 

Corey Dickerson:  Now that he has been moved from Colorado to Tampa Bay, a whole slew of value went by the wayside for Dickerson.  A very promising future .300 hitter with maybe 30 home runs to his name if he stayed with the Rockies, Dickerson has been just a slightly above-average guy in both categories on the road.  Not a good sign. 

Jay Bruce:  Have told you all to avoid Bruce for years as his strikeouts are truly getting out of hand.  You can find an ugly average guy who can hit 25 home runs about 10-12 rounds later and his name is Marlon Byrd.

Jason Heyward:  We never get into bidding wars for the recently overpaid Jason Heyward.  While the guy has terrific overall skills, his power has never really developed.  We like the steals and the average is improving but Heyward continues to be drafted like he is a star which he certainly is not. 

Carlos Gonzalez:  No way would we tempt fate two seasons in a row here.  Yes CarGo was arguably the best power hitter in the game during the second half of 2015 but his body is always on the verge of going out on him.  I really can't envision him staying healthy for two years in a row and note that his steals are now gone and his average is slipping badly as he becomes just a pure power hitter.

Billy Hamilton:  As classic a one category specialist as one can get, Hamilton could be stuck in the eighth spot this season as he just can't get on base.  His hitting is brutal but of course the allure is 60 steals.  However those steals won't do anything for you when he is hitting so badly. 

Joc Pederson:  Yeah this is a big turnaround for us as we pumped up Pederson prior to last season but he was downright pathetic the second half of 2015.  Yes the power is immense but the steals were nowhere to be found and the plate discipline is horrific.  Have to see signs of improvement before I get involved with the kid again.  It was that bad. 

Matt Holliday:  It was fun while it lasted but Holliday is now a major shell of his former star self.  Injuries and age have destroyed the bottom line value of Holliday who we can all salute as one of the best fantasy baseball outfielders of the last tea seasons or so. 



 

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