Saturday, January 30, 2016


It has been a complete firesale for the Milwaukee Brewers this winter, having decided to completely tear the team down after a horrific 2015 season.  Having already moved closer Francisco Rodriguez and first baseman Adam Lind, the Brewers on Saturday shipped out disappointing shortstop Jean Segura to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a deal that brings back fading veteran second baseman Aaron Hill and starter Chase Anderson.  The bigger story of course is what this does for the arrival timeline of top Brewers shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia now that the spot has been vacated.  As we always do, let's take apart the deal and look into from a fantasy baseball angle.

Jean Segura:  Way back in 2013, it looked like Jean Segura was the next superstar fantasy baseball shortstop.  Blending a .300 average with some pop and extreme speed, Segura was a guy we all wanted staring back at us when perusing our rosters.  For the first half of that breakout 2013 campaign, Segura hit .325 with 11 home runs and 27 stolen bases which were near-first round numbers on its surface.  The good times didn't last though as Segura struggled badly in the second half to the tune of a .241 average with 1 home run and 17 steals.  "He was tired" was the explanation as Segura went through his first full major league season.  Surely he would be back to his rise to stardom in 2014.  As a result Segura was drafted very early in the leadup to 2014 amid continuing sky-high expectations.  This is where the story goes sour though as Segura was a disaster as he hit a pitiful .246 with 5 home runs and 20 steals.  With his K rate rising and showing little to no patience, it looked like opposing pitchers had gotten a book on Segura and were exploiting some pronounced holes in his swing.  2015 was a bit better as Segura hit .257 with 6 home runs and 25 steals but it was still below expectations as the 2013 became nothing but a memory.  Now Segura has been shipped out of town and gets a fresh start in Arizona.  On the surface this could be a good thing as a fresh start can jump start a struggling player an Segura is still young at just 25.  However Segura carries mostly NL-only value as he has zero patience and continues to struggle with the bat.  A rebound is possible and again Segura is still quite young so don't give up on him entirely just yet. 

Chase Anderson:  The Brewers get some rotation filler in 28-year-old Chase Anderson who comes off a 2015 season where he pitched to a mediocre 4.30 ERA and ugly 1.30 WHIP.  With just 11 Ks in 152.2 innings, Anderson is barely even worth using in NL-only formats.

Aaron Hill:  By now Aaron Hill is nothing but a name as his bat has gone completely cold as he reaches the end of the line in his career.  Once a decent power hitter at a shallow second base position, Hill can be largely ignored.

Jonathan Villar:  At least for the start of the 2016 season, Jonathan Villar will man shortstop for the Brewers.  The former failed Houston Astros prospect has always had big time speed that many thought would lead to a decent amount of stolen bases at the major league level but he simply could not hit a lick with the Astros.  However Villar hit .284 with 7 steals in 116 at-bats last season and still has the wheels to help there if he can get on base.  Still he is just an NL-only option as Orlando Arcia will be up very soon.

Orlando Arcia:  The most interesting aspect of this deal is what it does for the arrival of top shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia.  With nothing but Villar keeping shortstop warm and the Brewers going nowhere, Arcia could be up in late April to show off his massive talent.  He hit .307 with 25 steals last season at Double-A which shows what he is capable of in the majors.  Think more Francisco Lindor here than Carlos Correa as Arcia does not have a bunch of power yet and will be known more for his average, runs, and steals.  However Lindor shocked with his power at the major league level last season as a rookie and Arcia figures to grow there as he matures.  Get him on all of your cheat sheets. 


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