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Saturday, January 30, 2016

2016 FANTASY BASEBALL OVERRATED/UNDERRATED

On the heels of our very positively received first OVERRATED/UNDERATED post of the season, let's go right back to the outfield well for today's subjects.  Today we go back to the outfield well and look at two Pittsburgh Pirates teammates in the form of annual first round MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen and his less-heralded but increasingly potent counterpart Starling Marte.  With McCutchen once again being a lock for the first round in fantasy baseball drafts this season despite coming off a somewhat disappointing 2015 campaign, Marte meanwhile gets a bit overshadowed by his outfield mate despite having just as good numbers.  Let's focus in on this a bit deeper.

First we look at "Player A" and "Player B" for comparison's sake, with one being McCutchen and the other Marte over the last two seasons:

PLAYER A

2014:  .291/13 HR/56 RBI/73 R/33 SB
2015:  .287/19 HR/81 RBI/84 R/27 SB

PLAYER B

2014:  .314/25 HR/83 RBI/89 R/18 SB
2015:  .292/23 HR/96 RBI/91 R/11 SB

So when you compare the two, PLAYER B has outperformed PLAYER A in four of the five standard ROTO categories by a decent margin, with steals being the only category where PLAYER B wins handily.  However consider the fact that PLAYER B being Andrew McCutchen is a top five or so draft pick in annual fantasy baseball leagues while Marte has come in with an ADP around the late third round/early fourth.  Also consider the fact that McCutchen is two years older then Marte and already looks like he has peaked.  McCutchen has leaked stolen bases the last few seasons and at 29, it is likely his days of being a big helper there are through.  Marte meanwhile is 27 and still has a season or so of ceiling left before he too tails off.  It is possible Marte adds a bit more in the home runs and RBI department, while beating McCutchen easily in steals and being quite competitive in runs and average.  So in essence Marte is the better buy worth waiting on in drafts this season as you pass on McCutchen and fill in with a slugging first baseman, a Carlos Correa, or a Jose Altuve instead.  This would be the better plan of action in your draft this season. 


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