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Thursday, January 28, 2016

2016 FANTASY BASEBALL OVERRATED/UNDERRATED: JAY BRUCE/MARLON BYRD

Yet another annual fantasy baseball feature gets dusted off today and this time around we go back to the overrated/underrated well in identifying hitters or pitches who are comparable in numbers but whose draft ADP is grossly different.  In such a situation, one players is clearly overrated and drafted too high while the other is underrated and drafted too low.  With numbers that are similar, the better idea is to obviously go with the underrated and much better priced guy who matter how much less name brand he is.  With this in mind, let's take a look at our first such pairing of the season and today we will focus on Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay  Bruce and free agent counterpart Marlon Byrd.  Let's get right to it:

First let's take a look at a set of numbers from the 2014 and 2015 seasons:

Player A 2014:  25 HR/85 RBI/71 R/.264/3 SB
Player A 2015:  23 HR/73 RBI/58 R/.247/2 SB 

Now let's look at Player B in the same time frame:

Player B 2014:  18 HR/66 RBI/71 R/.217/12 SB
Player B 2015:  26 HR/87 RBI/72 R/.226/9 SB

When you glance at the two numbers, Player A has more home runs and the much better average while Player B wins out in RBI, steals, and in runs.  That would make Player B the guy you would want more on your team but the three categories he wins out on are pretty close to Player A outside of steals.  However if I were to tell you that player B has one average drafted in the sixth round of mixed league fantasy baseball formats, you would be shocked to find out that Player A wound up being a late mid round target.  This despite the fact their overall numbers are quite comparable. 

As you can see from the title, we are comparing Player A of Marlon Byrd to Player B being Jay Bruce.  It is amazing to see that Bruce has been drafted pretty high in drafts while Byrd has gone in the late rounds.  Yes Byrd is ten years older than Bruce but the 12-14 round ADP difference between the two is nutty.  We have been saying for awhile now that Bruce is grossly overrated as he damages you in batting average and he is neutral in runs and offers just a bit in steals.  Yes the power is good to go along with nice RBI totals but Byrd's power is just as good and has been better the last two seasons.  We are not saying that you should be drafting Byrd and avoid Bruce but instead are pointing out an annual draft inequality that exists there.  Byrd could fall on his face this season due to age but Bruce will likely continue being overdrafted which is a sizable mistake for you to make this season.  Instead avoid Bruce and find some cheaper power guys later on. 

 

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