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Friday, January 29, 2016

2016 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: KRIS BRYANT 3B CHICAGO CUBS

When it came to the drafting season for 2015 fantasy baseball, there was not a more hyped or sought after hitter in the game than consensus number 1 prospect Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs.  The third baseman was coming off a truly insane season in 2014 on the farm where he hit a combined 43 home runs at two level while also stealing 15 total bases and putting up averages of .355 and .295.  Even though the Cubs planned to foolishly start Bryant in the minors to begin the season, he still found himself picked as high as Round 4!!!! in 2015 drafts.  Well the Cubs wound up not wasting much time in getting Bryant to the Big Show and the fun began in mid-April as he DEBUTED in the cleanup spot for the team.  Fast forward through six months and Bryant put up the following numbers which made his owners quite happy:

.275
26 HR
99 RBI
87 R
13 SB

Looking at those numbers, Bryant finished as a top four fantasy baseball third baseman at the age of 24 and positioned himself for blockbuster Bryce Harper/Mike Trout numbers going forward.  As a result, Bryant is already being highly fought over once again and his current ADP has him as a second round draft pick.  With expectations on a massive scale, we here at the Fantasy Sports Boss want to throw a bit of cold water on the hype.  While we absolutely think Bryant is a future stud and monster overall player, the 2016 season may not be the full launching pad many expect.  Let's discuss why.

When one takes a closer look at Bryant's 2015 debut, there is no debating the terrific numbers he put up as a rookie.  However when one digs deeper, there were some alarms worth discussing.  The biggest was the fact Bryant struck out an insane 199 times in 559 at-bats which comes out to a K/9 percentage of 30.6.  That is a massive number and it was amazing Bryant was able to even hit .275 with so many whiffs.  That brings us to the fact Bryant was LUCKY to hit .275 due to an extremely fortunate .378 BABIP.  In fact Bryant's .378 BABIP is about as high a lucky number as one hitter can get and if it were in the neutral territory, we would be looking at a .250 hitter.  There are some gaping holes in Bryant's swing which needs to be fixed and while he figures to get better as he gains more experience, it could prove to hurt him in 2016.  Bryant needs to make better contact or else his average will really hurt you and take some value away from the power.

Now on the plus side, Bryant has amazing natural power that portends to a future 40 home run guy.  In fact it would not shock me in the least if Bryant came close to 40 homers and 115 RBI this season.  The kid can also run a bit as Bryant's 13 steals last season could attest.  While we don't envision Bryant as a 20-steal guy, we do think 15 or so is very likely which makes him a bit weapon in fantasy baseball.  However keep in mind he is not a finished product just yet.  The average and strikeouts need work.

When you put it all together, we still think Kris Bryant is worth a second round pick but just keep your expectations somewhat in check.  The talent is very obvious but Bryant has work to do. 

2016 PROJECTION:  .259 35 HR 114 RBI 104 R 15 SB 

 

2 comments:

  1. I'd love to see a player analyzer on Joc Pederson. Would you keep him over Cano?

    ReplyDelete
  2. yes of course keep joc over cano. big upside but his holes are massive in terms of his swing. and where are the steals/

    ReplyDelete