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Tuesday, January 26, 2016

2016 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT DEBATE: IAN KINSLER/BRIAN DOZIER


It is time once again for another 2016 fantasy baseball Draft Debate where we compare two very similar players and determine which guy should be selected ahead of the other.  Today we delve back into the second base position and take a closer look at the Detroit Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Minnesota Twins’ Brian Dozier.  Both guys are right there in the argument of being the best second base options once Jose Altuve, Dee Gordon, and Robinson Cano are off the board and as always let’s compare the two using the five standard ROTO scoring categories to see who comes out on top.

RUNS:  Over the last two years Dozier has crossed the 100-run mark on both occasions, while Kinsler fell short in 2015 with a still very good total of 94.  On the flip side, Kinsler has the much higher OBP during that time frame and has the better hitters behind in the lineup compared to the barren Twins order.  That means this one is too close to call.

ADVANTAGE:  EVEN

HOME RUNS:  Kinsler’s days of hitting 30 or even 20 home runs are appear to be over as he has been in the teens each of the last three years.  Dozier on the other hand continues to get better in the home run department; coming in at 23 and then an extremely good 28 the last two seasons.  Clear win for the Twins second baseman.

ADVANTAGE:  Brian Dozier

AVERAGE:  As easy as Dozier wins in home runs, Kinsler takes it in batting average.  In fact it is not even close as Kinsler has gotten better as he has aged in the average department, putting up .277, .275, and .296 marks the last three years.  Dozier’s extremely poor K rate on the other hand had prevented him from hitting even .250 in his still young career. 

ADVANTAGE:  Ian Kinsler

STOLEN BASES:  Just like with his power, it looks like the steals are drying up for Kinsler as he ages.  He still is a help in that category but only in the low-teens realm.  Meanwhile Dozier took a very impressive 21 bags in 2014 but slumped to just 12 last season.  That still was one more than the 11 Kinsler had last season which gives Dozier the slight nod.

ADVANTAGE:  Brian Dozier

RBI:  Believe it or not Kinsler has outproduced Dozier in the RBI department the last two years with a total of 165 to his counterpart’s 148.  Dozier is hitting in the middle of the lineup for the Twins in a more RBI-conducive spot but Kinsler has a knack it seems for collecting RBI.

ADVANTAGE:  Ian Kinsler

INTANGIBLES:  When there is a tie we go to the intangibles to settle the matter and here is where the line gets drawn.  The first issue is that age is a factor here as Kinsler is now 33 while Dozier is five years younger at 28.  Dozier is flat in his prime and might have a smidge of ceiling left, while Kinsler’s is close to erosion time as his home runs and steals are dropping.  When this factor gets put into the equation, Dozier is your guy.

ADVANTAGE:  Brian Dozier

WINNER:  Brian Dozier

As you can see, this one was extremely close but Dozier’s youth and upside wins out.  Kinsler could drop off another level this season as he continues to age and his steals could vanish completely as well.  Go with the Twins second baseman. 

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