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Monday, February 9, 2015

2015 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: COREY DICKERSON OUTFIELDER COLORADO ROCKIES

Many in the fantasy baseball community are wondering if the terrific breakout season of Colorado Rockies outfielder Corey Dickerson was legitimate or not.  Based on the numbers, Dickerson performed like a lower-end outfielder 1 last season on a per game basis once he was given an everyday starting spot once Carlos Gonzalez went out injured.  Showing five-category ability, Dickerson proceeded to end up with the following digits in his first full MLB campaign.

.312
24 HR
76 RBI
74 R
8 SB

When you consider Dickerson did all of that in only 436 at-bats, one can appreciate just how good he really was as he ended up on the short list of the best value plays in the game.  The question now is whether or not they were fully legitimate numbers and if Dickerson will get exposed some since MLB pitchers will have had a full offseason to scout his tendencies and weaknesses.  On the surface, being an everyday player for the Rockies and having half of your games in Coors Field almost guarantees that Dickerson will at the very least be a lower-end outfielder 2 and more likely a high end guy in that same tier like teammate Charlie Blackmon.  And since he will be turning only 26 this May, Dickerson still has a year or two of ceiling left to his game as well. 

As always, we dig into the advanced numbers in order to determine what Dickerson really did legitimately in 2014.  For one things, Dickerson had one of the more fortunate BABIP's in the game last season as his massive .356 number indicates.  When you consider that an average BABIP is around .300, you can see just how lucky Dickerson was to hit .312.  Colorado surely helps in that aspect which means we can't push Dickerson's average down too much but .300 is more likely than anything above last season's .314.  In addition, Dickerson is a bit strikeout prone as his K Rate was a high 21.1 percent in 2014 which means again that the average is likely headed southward. 

In addition to the BABIP luck, Dickerson was also extreme in his home/road splits as most Rockies hitters are.  At home Dickerson batted a ridiculous .363 and that dropped to a very ordinary and even shaky .252 on the road.  The home runs?  Try 15 at home and 9 on the road.  As you can see, Dickerson is nothing more than an outfielder 3 on the road which something we have seen in the past with Carlos Gonzalez.  That means for half of his games, Dickerson is just average. 

When you put everything together, it is likely that we already saw the best out of Corey Dickerson on a per game basis last season with regards to the high average and power,  While the power seems legit and stable, the average is anything but.  We didn't even mention how Dickerson was good on only 8 of his 15 stolen base attempts which means he may not even get the green light there this season which is another issue to keep focused on as we head into his 2015 campaign.  While I do like Dickerson as a decent outfielder 2, I can't go on board saying he will be anything more than that this season. 

2015 PROJECTION:  .302 26 HR 86 RBI 84 R 9 SB

 

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