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Wednesday, August 20, 2014

FANTASY SPORTS BOSS FANTASY FOOTBALL PPR EXPERTS LEAGUE DRAFT ANALYSIS: ROUNDS 6-10

We already have gone through every pick of the first five rounds of the 2014 Fantasy Sports Boss Fantasy Football PPR Experts League Draft.  Yours truly through five rounds have my three receivers filled up with monsters Demaryuis Thomas, Dez Bryant, and Julio Jones, while also having secured Arian Foster and Zac Stacy at running back.  With no QB selected yet, that was my next chore.  Let's see how round 6-10 went.

ROUND 6

51. Matt Ryan:  I got my quarterback in Round 6 which is just about right since Ryan was still there along with Nick Foles, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo.  While we all would love Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, the right call all the way is going QB later if you play in single-passer formats.  As far as Ryan is concerned, I made the pick before LT Sam Baker was lost for the season which is a red flag.  However with a pass-happy Dirk Kotter calling the plays and Julio Jones and Roddy White healthy for now, the numbers will be there.

52. Knowshon Moreno:  This was a terrible pick as Moreno is currently hurt/out of shape/behind Lamar Miller in the Dolphin running back hierarchy.  Someone didn't do their homework.  Frank Gore, Rashad Jennings, and Toby Gerhart were all still on the board.

53. Colin Kaeperick:  I don't like Kaepernick and never have.  The 49ers offense is not conducive for a fantasy football-happy passer since they run the ball so much.  While Kaepernick can be considered a Cam Newton-lite with his running, he won't reach close to 4,000 yards and 25 TD's is not likely either.  Those are the two benchmarks that need to be reached in order to be an every week guy.

54. Michael Crabtree:  Crabtree is one big puzzle as he can't stay healthy and the 49ers don't exactly look like the Denver Broncos throwing the football.  Excellent receiver but the raw numbers will be lacking a bit.  In PPR Reggie Wayne or Julian Edelman were better bets.

55. Sammy Watkins:  This owner is having a really rough time of it as this is the same person who picked Chris Johnson and RGIII.  Watkins has all the natural talent in the world but the Buffalo Bills can't throw with QB E.J. Manuel and the weather will be awful for passing when the fantasy football playoff weeks are one.  If a rookie had to be picked first, I would go with Mike Evans or Brandin Cooks.

56. Rob Gronkowski:  Getting Gronk in Round 6 could be the steal of the century.  Right now it is starting to look like Gronkowski will be ready for Week 1 and if he can somehow get at least 12 starts, the payoff could be sweet.

57. Frank Gore:  You are bored to tears if you draft Gore but the guy continues to defy Father Time.  Despite another Pro Bowl season in 2013, Gore's average and numbers plummeted from Week 8 on and the 49ers are hellbent on using rookie Carlos Hyde.  Barely hanging on as a RB 2.

58. Reggie Wayne:  Nice job here as Wayne looks all the way back from his torn ACL and he is the clear safety valve for QB Andrew Luck.  80 catches is very possible for around 1,100 yards which in Round 6 is a steal.

59. Nick Foles:  Right where I thought he should go.  Foles has been overdrafted a lot this season based on his ridiculous 27/2 TD/INT ratio a year ago.  That split is never coming back and the loss of DeSean Jackson is bigger than some think.  While I do think Foles will be very good and a sure fire top 7 or so guy, the expectations are a bit out of whack.

60. Julian Edelman:  If I didn't already have three receivers, I would have absolutely targeted Edelman who came off a shockingly great 100-plus catch breakout.  However with Gronkowski and Danny Amendola healthy for now, the numbers might slip just a bit.

ROUND 7

61. C.J. Spiller:  Spiller is among the most overrated players that will go in the top 7 rounds.  Truth be told this is late for Spiller who on average has gone in the fifth round.  The talent is undeniable but the Bills continue to annoy us all by refusing to use Spiller on third down (taking away passes) and in the red zone (removing touchdown opportunities).  Thus what you have is a guy who barely qualifies as a RB 2 in PPR and is nothing but a bench runner in standard at best.

62. Jordan Reed:  Reed and Zach Ertz are the two buzzy tight ends this season and rightly so.  As a rookie Reed showed soft hands and the ability to get down the seam for passes.  As long as he avoids another concussion, Reed could complete the breakout season he was having a year ago.

63. Ray Rice:  Don't like this one bit as Rice will already miss two games with suspensions and he looked shot a year ago in averaging well under 4.0 yards per carry.  Bernard Pierce has a golden chance to literally run with the starter's job if he gets off to a good start in Weeks 1 and 2. 

64. Stevan Ridley:  Too early or too late?  Tough call here at least in standard leagues a Ridley has talent but a propensity to fumble leaves him in the doghouse way too much.  Loses big appeal in PPR formats as this league is though due to the fact Shane Vereen will get all the looks out of the backfield in the passing game.

65. Alfred Morris:  Despite this being a PPR league, this is sort of a steal as Morris has rushed for over 1,100 yards his first two seasons and will get all the goal-line work as the rare bell cow back.  He is almost a complete zero in receptions however which is why he fell this far.

66. Kelvin Benjamin:  Just one round after this owner took Sammy Watkins, they follow up with another rookie in Benjamin.  I think Benjamin will be the more productive of the two but again there is one owner in every league who can't help themselves when it comes to rookies.  Never the way to go unless it is a running back.

67. Joquie Bell:  I understand this pick since this is PPR as Bell has caught over 50 passes each of his first two seasons and could also factor into goal-line work.  Also Reggie Bush is guaranteed to miss time as one of the more injury-probe players in the game so Bell could be a nice payoff pick in Round 8.

68. Bishop Sankey:  Upside all the way here as the Tennessee Titans have a glaring need for a runner since they really only have an ineffective Shonn Greene in the fold.  Sankey has had some fumbling issues however so he may be a second-half asset but in Round 8 this was smart.

69. T. Y. Hilton:  The big-play receiver Hilton has a nice breakout season a year ago but that was with both Reggie Wayne and Dwane Allen injured.  With both Wayne and Allen back in action and with Hakeem Nicks signed as a free agent, there is bust potential here as Hilton could see a drop in catches and yardage.

70. Toby Gerhart:  I snagged Gerhart real cheap here as he is getting a major chance to break out as a three-down running back with the Jacksonville Jaguars.  While we don't know for sure if Gerhart is up to the task, getting him at the end of the seventh round could be highway robbery for me.

ROUND 8

71. Jason Witten:  Just a few years ago Witten was a fourth round draft pick so I made out well here.  Yeah it is been there/done that with me and Witten about 7 previous times over.  He has caught less than 80 passes two of the last three years and age is starting to show a bit.  However there is no one else more durable at tight end than Witten and 75 catches and 5 touchdowns is the floor. 

72. Eric Decker:  Decker goes from one extreme to the other offensively in moving from the Denver Broncos to the New York Jets as a free agent.  No doubt Decker benefited from Demaryuis Thomas getting double-covered on the other side and now with Geno Smith throwing him the football, this could get ugly. 

73. Rashad Jennings:  Good value here since this is PPR as Jennings will play about 80 percent of the snaps in the Giants offense after signing as a free agent.  His receiving ability is top notch and he running skills are solid as well.  Unfortunately rookie Andre Williams looks like he will steal the goal-line work which pushes him very low in RB 2 territory in standard leagues.

74. Philip Rivers:  This is the first "backup" QB off the board as this owner already had Aaron Rodgers.  Don't like going this early for your second passer if you play only one there but Rodgers does present some injury risk so a small part of me understands.  However with Brady and Romo still around, he could have waited another round or two.

75. Cecil Shorts:  Shorts has been a solid WR 3 the last two seasons but nothing more.  In fact we have probably seen his best as rookie Marqise Wilson is ready to take over the number 1 receiving spot.

76. Danny Woodhead:  Woodhead shocked us all by going past the 70 catch mark in 2013 and he remains a very big part of the San Diego ground-based attack for 2014.  The arrival of Donald Brown hurts Ryan Matthews more than Woodhead and it is telling that the latter went higher than the starting San Diego back.  While 70-plus catches might be pushing it again, 60-plus and around 400 rushing yards is a terrific haul for an eighth round pick. 

77. Tom Brady:  Second backup off the board as Brady gets paired with Drew Brees on this team.  Amazing that Brady is now being drafted as a backup in fantasy football but that is what happens when you come off a tough 2013 season that was not even the passer's fault.  The Patriots failed to upgrade the receivers surrounding Brady which means 30 touchdowns once again could be out of reach.

78. Emmanuel Sanders:  Sanders is a bit of a puzzle himself as he is being overdrafted some on the basis that he will be Eric Decker 2013 since he is taking his place in the Denver passing offense.  While that may in fact be the case, we think Sanders will be more 60-catches instead of 80.

79. Ryan Matthews:  Took awhile but Matthews finally comes off the board.  He finally figured out how to stay healthy a year ago and in turn had his best season.  However Donald Brown is now in town to steal touches and Danny Woodhead will hurt his PPR numbers.  Also it is very unlikely Matthews stays so healthy two seasons in a row so you are buying high there.

80. Torrey Smith:  Never my cup of tea due to the fact Smith just doesn't catch enough passes to be a major help in PPR leagues.  While upside remains, Smith is just another name at this point.

ROUND 9

81. Cordarelle Patterson:  If Patterson were on any other team, he would be as high as a fourth round pick.  The kid has big time speed and agility and on talent alone looks like a future WR ace.  However with either Matt Cassel or Teddy Bridgewater throwing him the passes, his numbers will likely go up and down every week.

82. Marques Colston:  What a great pick this is.  The talk of the 30-year-old's Colston's decline in 2013 were overblown as he finished the second half of the season on par with his career numbers.  While Brandin Cooks is a threat to steal some throws, Drew Brees still trusts his veterans more than anyone else. 
 
83. Zach Ertz:  I like it.  A lot has already been made this summer about how Ertz will be the red zone target of QB Nick Foles and so far this preseason that has been true as he has caught two touchdowns already.  Ertz oozes with potential and he could be a top five guy by the end of the season given his opportunity.
 
84. Mike Wallace:  The right spot for Wallace who had his moments a year ago but could not get on page 1 with Ryan Tannehill.  With the Dolphins having addressed the offensive line, there is the strong possibility that the two can now connect more down the field.
 
85. Jeremy Maclin:  This has been the round of potential values as every pick so far falls under that heading.  Maclin's biggest challenge has always been staying healthy but his presence in a Chip Kelly offense could lead to big things.
 
86. Russell Wilson:  This owner picked Wilson to back up RGII but I would have preferred the still available Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger.  While Wilson had a tremendous season in 2013, he is like Colin Kaepernick in that he doesn't throw the football enough to be an every week guy.
 
87. Seattle:  The first defense comes off the board in Round 9 and it is the consensus top unit.  You know how this goes.  Once one comes off the board, the others soon follow.
 
88. Golden Tate:  Tate gets a prime chance in Detroit's high-powered offense to show what all the fuss was about when he came out of Notre Dame.  Could be a very good WR 3 option with a bit more upside still to his name.
 
89. Trent Richardson:  This owner has T-Rich and Knowshon Moreno as their starting running backs.  Not good.  Even money says Ahmad Bradshaw leads the Colts in rushing.
 
90. Brandin Cooks:  I usually don't draft rookie wide receivers but I couldn't resist Cooks here due to his presence in the New Orleans offense and his top end speed.  Could be a terrific WR 3 buy but Drew Brees does like to throw the football everywhere.
 
ROUND 10
 
91. Tony Romo:  I get my backup QB here and it is a guy I have preached about for years.  Romo is criminally underrated every season and especially this year coming off back surgery.  While that is understandable at least a bit for 2014, Romo looked great in his preseason debut and with Matt Ryan gives me two guys in pass-first offenses with tons of weapons.
 
92. Maurice Jones-Drew:  This owner is clearly scrambling at running backs since he waited and got stuck with Moreno and Richardson.  MJD is clearly on the downside but at least in PPR he could salvage some RB 2 value due to his pass-catching ability. 
 
93. Mike Evans:  Good spot to take a chance on Evans despite a run-loving coach in Lovie Smith.  Josh McCown showed a season ago he loves to throw the deep ball and Evans should be up to the challenge.
 
94. Dennis Pitta:  Great pick here as I really like Pitta.  He will likely lead the Baltimore Ravens in catches and has 10 TD upside. 
 
95. Charles Clay:  Some solid tight end picks here.  Clay does a nice job serving as Ryan Tannehill;s outlet.  He will never be more than what he already is but that works fine enough.
 
96. Andy Dalton:  Lots of backup QB's going off the board now which is right in Round 10.  Dalton will not throw as much in new OC Hue Jackson's offense but he has proven to be a quietly underrated passer since he was picked by the team three seasons ago.
 
97. Anquan Boldin:  Boring pick here as Boldin is aging but still solid enough.  The 49ers have added Stevie Johnson to a stable lead by Michael Crabtree so there will be lots of competition for catches on a team that's run the football first.
 
98. Darren Sproles:  He is fading just a bit but Sproles going to Chip Kelly's offense will curb any more erosion for another season at least.  This is a PPR plug all the way who can help in a pinch.
 
99. Riley Cooper:  Will have a tougher time with DeSean Jackson on the other side.  Not a fan of the guy and that is not even taking into account his off-the-field garbage.
 
100. Jay Cutler:  Great backup pick here as Cutler has arguably the best collection of weapons in the game.  If Cutler hadn't annoyed for years with picks and injuries, he would have gone much higher.
 
 
 

1 comment:

  1. Some terrible picks for a competitive league! I still would of taken more RB's instead of the 2 rookies WRs you have, but it looks like you should be favored against most teams. I like the 1 team a lot too. Torrey Smith is in Andre Johnson's slot now, he's never been used right IMO. Could be a 90 catch season.

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