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Sunday, August 17, 2014

FANTASY SPORTS BOSS 2014 FANTASY FOOTBALL PPR EXPERTS LEAGUE DRAFT RESULTS ROUND BY ROUND

I already shared with you my roster after the 2014 Fantasy Sports Boss Experts League PPR draft Saturday.  With that out of the way, I thought it would be good to share with you the round-by-round results and analysis of each pick. 

ROUND 1

1.  Jamaal Charles:  I can see someone picking LeSean McCoy over Charles but these two should be the top two picks in all formats. 

2.  LeSean McCoy:  With the two obvious ones out of the way, the first few debating points begin.

3.  Matt Forte:  Forte is the right call over Adrian Peterson in a PPR league as he is arguably the most accomplished receiving back in the game.  In addition Peterson is a bit worrisome as he is now 29.

4.  Adrian Peterson:  These four are clearly ahead of the rest of the pack with maybe Eddie Lacy sneaking in there.  Peterson is the bionic man who doesn't even let a very serious knee injury slow him down.  The wheels have to slow down eventually however.  Even for this monster runner.

5.  Eddie Lacy:  No issues with any of the top five picks.  Lacy is looking like a monster in his own right as he should be a lock for 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns at the very least.  A true power back in every sense of the word, Lacy can also be of service in the passing game.

6.  Montee Ball:  Ball is a tad scary due to his fumbling and the fact he will miss almost all of camp and preseason games after having an appendectomy.  However Knowshon Moreno was the fifth-highest scoring back in fantasy football a year ago and no one going into that season had him as anything more than a bench guy.  Great opportunity there.

7.  Marshawn Lynch:  Lynch has a ton of mileage on his body since going to Seattle and like with Peterson, a drop in numbers could happen as soon as this season.  A bit risky there but also the right choice at running back with who else was already selected.

8.  Jimmy Graham:  This was the first surprise as I noted yesterday since I prepared to take Graham at 10 or 11.  I understand what the owner is doing here in trying to get an instant leg up over everyone at tight end and really Graham's receiving numbers are on par with the top wideouts. 

9.  Calvin Johnson:  Was this close to getting Megatron who is hands down the most gifted receiver in the game.  That doesn't mean he will have the best numbers though as both Dez Bryant and Demaryuis Thomas are fully capable of holding that mantle.  Still Johnson has to go before any other receiver in the draft.

10. Demaryuis Thomas:  Was very happy to get Thomas here as he will put up silly numbers as the clear top gun in the Peyton Manning passing offense.  And like I said with the pick above, I wouldn't be shocked if he led all of football in total receiving stats.

ROUND 2

11. Dez Bryant:  I locked up two of the top three receivers in the game and both guys could catch 100 balls with 10-14 touchdowns.  Jackpot.  Bryant is set for his best season yet in Scott Linehan's passing offense and that is saying a ton considering how terrific he was the last two years.  This should be sweet.

12. Peyton Manning:  Despite my vow not to draft a QB early, I was tempted to take Manning the pick before given how awesome his stats were a season ago.  He won't do that again and the neck could give out at any time but the Broncos refilled the cupboard with Emmanuel Sanders and an improving Julius Thomas. 

13.  A.J. Green:  So far the draft went as anticipated with not much in the way of outlier picks.  I like Green a lot but I had him below Johnson, Bryant, and Thomas.  New OC Hue Jackson loves to run and so Green could see slightly less catches and yards.  Also I weighed the fact that Green will have to tangle with Pro Bowl Cleveland Browns CB Joe Haden in the second (or first) playoff week considering your format.  Green always struggles against Haden and when you are trying to decipher between similar players, everything counts in the equation.

14. Aaron Rodgers:  Rodgers over Brees was interesting and with the latter having an oblique problem I can see it.  The Green Bay gunslinger is always a statistical monster but he does carry risk of injury due to shoddy blocking in front of him.  Still Rodgers won't throw nearly as many balls as Manning and Brees (and Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan for that matter) so this is a debatable pick against his New Orleans counterpart.

15. Jody Nelson:  Nelson has never hit the 90-catch plateau which keeps him below the ther guys already picked and truthfully I would have went with Brandon Marshall instead but his place as the top dog in the Green Bay passing attack is secure.  One of the better TD producers as well.

16. Brandon Marshall:  Speaking of Marshall, don't worry too much about the development of Alshon Jeffery taking away catches.  Jay Cutler will always look to Marshall first as the two have a top notch rapport. 

17. Drew Brees:  Maybe the oblique caused Brees to slip a bit which is understandable since he is 35 and this is a tough injury that can re-occur.  Still Brees is behind only Peyton Manning in the QB hierarchy and 5,000 yards and 40 TD's is the floor which is a crazy statement to make.

18. Antonio Brown:  Brown finished second among all wideouts in PPR scoring last season as he proved forcefully he can be a team's top receiver.  Ben Roethlisberger treats Brown like Jay Cutler does Brandon Marshall so another 100 catches is almost a lock.  He is not the TD threat as some of the other top guys though due to lack of height.

19. Giovani Bernard:  If Bernard continues to get goal-line work as he did in Saturday's preseason game, than this could be a steal.  This owner's two backs are McCoy and Bernard.  Well done.

20. Alshon Jeffrey:  All of the top wide receivers are now off the board as far as true number 1's are concerned.  Julio Jones on talent alone is there but his injury issues cloud his value.  Jeffrey may not catch 90 balls like teammate Marshall but he is an even bigger TD weapon.

ROUND 3

21. Andrew Luck:  The first QB off the board after the Big Three is Luck which I won't object too.  Stardom is a given for the strong-armed and nimble-footed Stanford grad.  Really though you can lump Luck in with Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady and put them in any sort of order.  They are all that close.  And I didn't even mention Cam Newton or Tony Romo.

22. Andre Johnson:  Johnson is always a high-volume receiver who is one of the all-time PPR greats.  However he maddeningly doesn't score touchdowns and now has Ryan Fitzpatrick and his noodle arm throwing to him.  Toss in ongoing hamstring issues at 34 years old and Johnson is one big risk.

23. Matthew Stafford:  I really like Stafford this season as now Golden Tate and rookie Eric Ebron join Megatron to give him a ton of weapons.  The lasting images of Stafford are very negative though after he melted down last December under a hail of interceptions but the Lions throw it all day which should lead to 4,200 yards and around 30 scores.  Would have taken Stafford over Foles, Rivers, and company.

24. Vincent Jackson:  Not a fan of Jackson and have never owned him due to how up and down his numbers are from week-to-week.  In PPR Jackson gets knocked down a bit as he never catches a high volume of balls but his scoring potential is immense.  Josh McCown at QB is shaky but than again he did fine with rookie Mike Glennon.

25. Randall Cobb:  Love this pick.  Cobb is going to threaten the 100-catch mark if he can stay on the field as the slot man in the Green Bay offense.  He will also get punt return duties and some runs which will further add to his stats.  Big time season ahead.

26. Chris Johnson:  Wow.  First dud of the draft.  Not understanding one bit why an aging runner who won't get goal-line work in a weak New York Jets offense goes this early.  This is not 2009.  So many better options like Le'Veon Bell, Arian Foster, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray, and Alfred Morris were on the board still.

27. DeMarco Murray:  Everyone in the room was scared of Murray and rightfully so.  Classic guy who is boom or bust all the way.  Murray has gone as high as round 1 in drafts and as late as here.  All about personal preference and how much risk you want to take. 

28. Le'Veon Bell:  By this time the news was already known that LeGarrett Blount would be getting the goal-line work or else Bell would have went in the second round.  The PPR format works good with Bell who can catch the ball but his overall line of numbers will be hurt by not getting the ample amount of scores that was originally predicted.

29. Larry Fitzgerald:  Fitzgerald is still a solid receiver but past his prime now as Michael Floyd will likely take over the number 1 mantle in Arizona.  80 catches and 1,100 yards are now the baseline which is a step or two below what Fitzgerald used to do.  Julio Jones was the better play here by far.

30. Julio Jones:  Was ecstatic to get a guy with first round talent in the third as Jones was the best receiver in football before he broke his foot last season.  Yes the injury risk is as high as any receiver in the game but in the third round this works.

ROUND 4

31. Arian Foster:  Had an internal debate over whether I should take the oft-injured Foster or upstart Andre Ellington but I went with the better TD potential.  When healthy Foster is a major PPR weapon overall but health has been in short supply.  Still he is only 27 and the only capable runner on the Texans so there is solid bounce back appeal.  Will debate this pick all season.

32. DeSean Jackson:  Horrible.  First off Jackson is no longer in Chip Kelly's offense and he doesn't catch a lot of balls which makes him a terrible fit in this type of league.  Julian Edelman, Floyd, Keenan Allen, or Kendall Wright were much better alternatives.

33. Doug Martin:  Very steep drop for Martin who was a top five pick in 2013 but a shoulder injury finished him after not even half the games.  In addition Martin's stats sank when he was healthy,e specifically the catches.  Right now Bobby Rainey is slated for third down work which means Martin is going to continue losing some receptions which hurts his bottom line.  Still this could shape up as nice value if he gets his running going again.

34. Wes Welker:  Way too early for Welker who is one more concussion away from possible retirement.  While he should inch his catches back up over the 80 mark and has his best TD potential in his career with Peyton Manning, Welker is one big red flag. 

35. Robert Griffin III:  Same owner who took Chris Johnson in Round 3 strangely goes with RGIII in this spot when better alternatives like Foles, Rivers, Ryan, Newton, and Romo were on the board.  While I do love the weapons Griffin has, reports out of Redskins camp were not glowing.  Way too high an injury risk as well. 

36. Cam Newton:  The run on QB's is in full force now and this is pretty much where Newton should go.  While I am not a fan due to the lack of weapons and the fact Newton will never have a high amount of passing yards and scores, he makes up for it on the ground. 

37. Julius Thomas:  The run on tight ends will likely start when Thomas comes off the board in most drafts as he is the consensus number 2 after Jimmy Graham.  There is room for improvement here as well as there are more balls to catch after Eric Decker left as a free agent.

38. Pierre Garcon:  Not loving this pick.  Garcon will never catch 113 passes again and I never pay for career seasons.  He has a long history of foot issues and there are more weapons for Griffin to move the ball around to. 

39. Victor Cruz:  The Giants new offense looks horrible this summer and Cruz had zero catches in three preseason games which may have caused his stock to drop.  Still Cruz is fully capable of catching 80 balls for 1,200 yards and around 10 scores which is major value at this spot.

40. Andre Ellington:  Like I said I will debate whether or not taking Foster over Ellington was the right move all season.  Ellington is supposed to play the Jamaal Charles role in the Arizona offense and while he won't pick up many scores on the ground, he will catch a ton of passes out of the backfield.

ROUND 5

41. Keenan Allen:  Shocked Allen fell this far.  There is some "show me again" in play here as well as the fact the Chargers want to run the football this season as 2013 OC Ken Whisenhunt and his pass-happy system is now in Tennessee.  Still since Allen is the clear number 1 with no solid number 2 in San Diego (sorry we can't count on Malcolm Floyd), this is a nice pick.

42. Kendall Wright:  Really like this kid a lot as Wright has big time PPR appeal.  The fact he caught 94 passes last season with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jake Locker at QB speaks to how good a player Wright is and the 2 touchdowns were fluky as well.  Good value.

43. Shane Vereen:  Yes this is a PPR league but this is a tad too early for Vereen when guys like Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Zac Stacy, and Frank Gore were on the board.  True Vereen could catch 80 balls this season but first he has to prove he can stay on the field long enough to do so.

44. Percy Harvin: Another major risk/reward guy, Harvin was a complete no-show last season due to first a hip and than a concussion issue.  Again upside galore but also the potential for it all to go wrong. 

45. Roddy White:  The previous owner messed up by not taking White or even Julian Edelman there.  White is shaping up to be a bargain this season as his numbers down in 2013 due to an ongoing ankle problem.  Once White was healthy in December, he produced like the stud he has been. 

46. Reggie Bush:  After two straight duds from this owner, they do well with Bush here as he remains solid in PPR formats despite Joquie Bell nipping at his heels.  Has to stay healthy though which is always Bush's biggest problem each season.

47. Vernon Davis:  No good.  Don't like Davis over Jordan Cameron, Rob Gronkowski, or even Jason Witten.  Remember in PPR Davis does not look so hot despite all the touchdowns. 

48. Michael Floyd:  Great potential here for a major breakout by Floyd who could do a nice version of Alshon Jeffery form last season.  Tremendous athlete who will catch up with the deep Carson Palmer throws. 

49. Jordan Cameron:  I was set to take Cameron until this owner snagged him the pick before I went.  With Josh Gordon possibly suspended for all of 2013, the passes have to go somewhere and Cameron is as equipped as anyone to grab them.

50. Zac Stacy:  Was very surprised to see Stacy last this long as he is a bell cow back who has solid TD potential.  Yeah his rushing average is not great but Stacy has little competition for work and should be abel to net at least 7 scores and good rushing yardage.

That's all for now.  Check back for coverage of round 6-10 tomorrow.

Post your opinions below on the proceedings.

 

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