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Wednesday, January 8, 2014

2014 FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER ANALYZER: CARLOS GOMEZ OUTFIELDER MILWAUKEE BREWERS

                                                              Carlos G√≥mez

I am in love with Carlos Gomez.  I get weak in the knees when I say his name.  If I were a groupie in Milwaukee I would stake out every bar in search of Mr. Gomez.  Well maybe not to that last statement's extent but you get my drift.  The bottom line for me is that there is not a bigger fan of Carlos Gomez in fantasy baseball than yours truly and anyone who has followed the site knows how deep that affection goes.  For starters, I have owned Gomez in BOTH of the Experts Leagues each of the last two seasons and it is no coincidence that I won all four leagues.  After picking Gomez up off waiver midway through 2012 and than drafting him at a cheaper than he should have been rate in 2013, I laughed all the way to the fantasy baseball bank under a hail of home runs and steals.  AS we move towards 2014 however, I feel a sense of dread that my relationship with Gomez might be coming to an end.  After burning more than a few owners during his early days and seemingly taking forever to unleash his talent, Gomez has now fully made a 180 turnaround in his value to the fantasy baseball community.  Evidence of this was the fact Lindy's Sports put Gomez in their top ten at number 8 overall which made me cringe.  After snagging Gomez in the sixth round last season, the power/speed dynamo is likely going to require as early as a second round pick to secure his services which makes me very sad.  I would love nothing more than to have a Gomez reunion but there will be competition for his game like never before.  So with that said let's dig in and take a closer look at Gomez to see what he could once again supply to his lucky fantasy baseball owners this season.

As always let's take a closer look at Gomez' numbers the last two seasons:

2012:  .260 19 HR 51 RBI 72 R 37 SB
2013:  .284 24 HR 73 RBI 80 R 40 SB

In looking at those numbers, you can easily see why Gomez generates so much excitement heading into 2014.  He possesses that very rare power/speed game that is fantasy baseball gold with his 19/37 and 24/40 campaigns the last two years.  Despite feeling like Gomez has been around forever, he turns only 29 this season which means he has a good 3 or 4 years at this level of production.  Taking things a step further, the 24 home runs Gomez hit last season are likely the ceiling when it comes to his power.  Gomez doesn't profile as a 30 home run guy and the fact he is flat in his prime suggests that at best he might add a home run or two and could even slide back to 20 which is still solid.  Now as far as the steals are concerned, Gomez runs like the wind and should have no problem stealing between 35-40 once again.  Can he get to 50?  I don't see it since he doesn't hit leadoff but still 40 is absolutely nothing to sneeze at. 

Looking at the rest of the statistical package, Gomez hitting second means he will likely struggle to get to the 80 RBI plateau.  However the runs have a chance to improve on last season's 80.  Finally as far as the batting average is concerned, Gomez has done a remarkable job improving what was once a very ugly stat for him due to a very high K rate.  The .284 he hit last season was a career-high which was helped by somewhat of a lucky BABIP.  Gomez still struck out 146 times last season which is a bit of a problem and that means he is more likely to hit .270 than .284.  Still his days of hitting .230 are looking like they are a thing of the past.

When you put everything together, Carlos Gomez once again is a major fantasy baseball outfield weapon who can help contribute across the board in all five categories.  While I hate to say it, Gomez is worth as high as a second round pick given how precious players who are so versatile are.  Go heavy on him and make sure you leave a box of tissues for me as I say farewell to my guy.

2014 PROJECTION:  .275 23 HR 86 R 75 RBI 39 SB

Be sure to check back for more of the starting pitching rankings as we move forward through the week.  Let us hear your thoughts.

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