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Sunday, January 19, 2014

2014 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT BUST: ERVIN SANTANA SP FREE AGENT

                                                                Ervin Santana

We are moving ever so slowly towards 2014 fantasy baseball drafting season so let's get another bust for you all to avoid out of the way.  Today I bring you current free agent SP Ervin Santana who is clearly looking to cash in on the market after a big 2013 season.  Santana pitched to a splendid 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while striking out 161 batters in 21 innings.  The numbers look very nice on the surface but be aware that all is not what is looks like when it comes to Santana's performance last season and his outlook for 2014 has danger written on it. 

As far as Santana the pitcher is concerned, he has been one big headache throughout his career as he has combined some very good seasons with some very bad ones.  Santana's stats have fluctuated wildly at times and across all the starting pitching categories in fantasy baseball parlance.  That is one reason alone while Santana presents some sizable danger this season.  The last time Santana pitched so well when he put up a 3.38 ERA in 2011, he followed that up with a horrible 5.16 bomb of a season in 2012.  A couple of other red flags abound here as well.  Santana's K rate has dropped noticeably the last few years from his 180-plus K years from 2011 and prior.  Santana has struck out 133 batters in 178 innings in 2012 and only the 161 in the 211 innings last season which are not good ratios by any means.  Sure he could pick up some more K's if he goes to the National League but Santana is also getting older at 32 which also is a bit unnerving.

Now let's get to the advanced stats.  The danger alarms are going off here as Santana.  A unfathomable 77 percent of runners who got on base against Santana last season failed to come around and score.  That is an astronomically high strand rate that in no way is repeatable.  Santana will face a sharp decline in that number and the earned runs will start piling up.  Not good by any means.

When it comes to Santana the pitcher in 2014 fantasy baseball, much caution should be exercised as always.  The prevailing idea among the fantasy baseball community is that they are not buying into Santana's 2013 season and that they still don't trust him.  Let tis post just be a nice reminder of such.

2014 PROJECTION:  14-10 3.75 ERA 1.16 WHIP 165 K

Be sure to check back for more of the starting pitching rankings as we move forward through the week.  Let us hear your thoughts.

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