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Monday, January 20, 2014

2014 FANTASY BASEBALL BABIP LOOK: CATCHERS

Today we delve into the advanced statistics world by taking a closer look at BABIP when it comes to those who carry the bat.  As a quick rehash for those who are not familiar, BABIP measures the amount of luck a hitter generates with the batted ball.  Anything above .300 is a lucky figure and below is considered unlucky. Eventually that number will move back to the mean .300 mark and the correction goes a long way in influencing the fantasy baseball outlook in 2014 for certain players.  With that said let's take a look at those catcher who generated luck with their BABIP marks and this their batting averages last season and those who got unlucky.

CATCHERS WHO BENEFITTED FROM LUCKY 2013 BABIP'S

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.273 average/.372 BABIP):  It was shocking to see Salty hit for such a lofty average by his awful standards last season and with his very high K rate, he should be back to his usual .230 mark in 2014. 

Yadier Molina (.319 average/.338 BABIP):  Molina was in the batting title running for awhile last season which is not where one would think he would be.  He is still a terrific hitter though who doesn't strike out so Molina can still hit .300 even if the BABIP correct like it should.

Joe Mauer (.324 average/BABIP):  Mauer is a perennial .315-plus hitter and moving to first base full time will likely keep him from losing to much there this season when the correction takes place. 

Jason Castro (.276 average/.351 BABIP):  Castro strikes out in almost 25 percent of his at-bats so no way does he hit near .276 again.  Combined with a history of knee problems and this is a sizable risk.

Wilin Rosario (.292 average/.344 BABIP):  It was surprising as well to see Rosario hit for such a nice average when he too strikes out a ton but the script will get flipped this season.  Still Rosario is one of the bright young hitters in baseball and should still be picked as a top 4 catcher.

CATCHERS WHO BENEFITTED FROM UNLUCKY 2013 BABIP'S

Matt Wieters (.235 average/.247 BABIP):  I talked about Wieters yesterday so head on over to that post to read more.

Miguel Montero (.230 average/.282 BABIP):  That explains a small bit Montero's awful 2013 campaign but still a .282 BABIP is not drastically unlucky.

Buster Posey (.294 average/.312 BABIP):  Again this is not a very unlucky number but Posey is still the top catcher out there.

Let us know what catchers you are targeting in drafts this season. 



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