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Wednesday, June 19, 2013

FANTASY FOOTBALL 2013 ROUND 1 ANALYSIS

The 2013 Fantasy Football season is already underway in some league as drafts are unbelievably being held this early.  While I am firm in my belief not to hold your draft until August at the earliest, we are still here to help you all sort out the dilemmas and decisions you have to make along the way.  It all starts in Round 1 of course as your first pick in fantasy football is tremendously crucial to help set you up for success.  If you miss here than you could actually be done before you even starter.  With that said let's see how the first round would look in one experts humble opinion in a PPR format.

1.  Calvin Johnson:  In a PPR format there is no other pick to make at the top of the draft.  Even in standard leagues you can absolutely pick Johnson first since he is a monster in both receptions and touchdowns.  Flat in his prime and proven himself to be durable, 100-catches, 1,500 yards, and 12 touchdowns is a CONSERVATIVE estimate.

2.  Adrian Peterson:  While I hate drafting guys who you know their numbers are guaranteed to sink, Peterson is so dominant that he deserves to be picked in this slot.  Even if he loses 300 yards rushing Peterson will still net 1,700 yards with around 40 catches and 10-12 scores.

3.  Aaron Rodgers:  These three are the top guys in any format no questions asked.  Rodgers has paced the QB scale for three seasons now and another 40 touchdowns is a lock given how explosive his surrounding cast is.

4.  Doug Martin:  I give Martin the nod over Arian Foster for two reasons.  One is that he is younger and the second is that Foster has a history of hamstring injuries (flareups each of the last two seasons).  Once compared to Ray Rice in coming into his rookie year, Martin may actually post better numbers in 2013.

5.  Arian Foster:  Feels weird placing Foster fifth after he was the consensus number 1 pick the last two seasons but this is no disrespect to the Houston stud running back.  While he has a ton of carries the last three seasons, Foster is still young enough to post another dominant year or two.  The threat of Ben Tate proved to be a non-story in 2012 as well so there are less issues to worry about going forward.

6.  Ray Rice:  Sure Rice's numbers slid across the board in 2012 but they were still first round statistics any way you cut it.  Bernard Pierce looks like a player so he could continue to chop at his numbers some but Rice will still post some of the best rushing.receiving totals in the game.

7.  Jamaal Charles:  I can't tell you how much I love Jamaal Charles this season.  In fact I will go so far as to say that he could end up being the number 1 player in the game in 2013 if he can stay healthy.  Showing no loss of speed after his 2111 ACL tear, the arrival of Andy Reid is huge for his bottom line as one only has to look at what the coach has done for LeSean McCoy's career to know why.  Love him.

8.  LeSean McCoy:  The Bryce Brown thing is not a big deal in my opinion as McCoy could use a bit lessening of the workload after having an injury-marred 2012.  The bigger story is the arrival of offensive guru Chip Kelly from Oregon who oversaw some of the most ridiculous passing/running attacks in NCAA history.  McCoy is a good bet to reclaim a great deal of his All Pro 2011 numbers.

9.  Drew Brees:  Now that the top running backs are off the board, time to go back to the QB ranks as Brees and his wondrous New Orleans Saints passing numbers continue to not put up crazy numbers every season.  While the interceptions are up, that is only because of the sheer volume of throws Brees makes.  Still as good as it gets.

10. Brandon Marshall:  Back with Jay Cutler, Marshall is a 100-catch robot again.  Nothing less is to be expected on 2013 either.

11. Trent Richardson:  Danger alert!  Richardson shapes up in my opinion as the biggest potential bust who could go in Round 1 given his vast injury history.  On top of that, Richardson reportedly has already complained of some knee soreness in the same one that was surgically repaired last training camp.  Not good at all.  Outside of the health worries, Richardson is looking at a major rushing/receiving breakthrough to stardom but we just can't get past the concerns he could go bust.

12. Tom Brady:  The 12th pick is tough as you could go Cam Newton, C.J. Spiller, or A.J. Green here.  Won't argue either way.

There you have it.  As always let us hear your thoughts.  Also check back for the standard league round 1 analysis.


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