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Saturday, January 26, 2013

2013 FANTASY BASEBALL STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS PART 3

We get to the end of our 2013 fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings with Part 3.  These are the last remaining guys who should be owned in standard 12-team mixers.

1.  Justin Verlander-His extreme durability wins out over Kershaw who dealt with some hip issues in 2012.
2.  Clayton Kershaw-A tad concerned about his high usage of breaking pitches but would not argue too much if you have him number 1.
3.  Felix Hernandez-A lot of innings at a young age but as consistent as they come.  2011 and 2012 numbers almost identical.
4.  David Price-Count easily duplicate his 2012 Cy Young numbers.  No issues with AL East.
5.  Cole Hamels-Loved the guy for years as a value ace for my staff.  Price no longer that attractive as rest of the fantasy baseball community has finally given him his due.
6.  Matt Cain-Upped his K rate last season which was only last remaining nitpick issue.  Extremely durable and miniscule ERA/WHIP combo amazing.
7.  Stephen Strasburg-On ability you can tuck him right under Kershaw but red flags all over this arm with Verducci Rules violation in 2012 and peripherals that spiked as season went on.
8.   Cliff Lee-Gladly take the slightly depressed price after winning only 6 games in one of the flukiest seasons ever.  Was just as good as his 2010 and 2011 campaigns.
9.  Gio Gonzalez-Yup we picked him as our dark horse Cy Young Candidate last season.  How did that work out?
10. Jered Weaver-Not buying this stock as Weaver's sinking K rate and XFIP of over 4.00 last year cry out concern.
11. Madison Bumgarner-Told you all to reach for him last season and that turned out just swell.  Rinse and repeat.
12. C.C. Sabbathia-Dropping as he dealt with arm trouble for first time in 2012 after all those 220-inning seasons.  Not the horse he used to be.
13. Zack Greinke-Once again I love the guy to the point of having no problems making him my value play ace.  Numbers are always there but yet doesn't get the recognition.
14. James Shields-223 and 225 K's last two seasons in AL East with 1.04 and 1.17 WHIP's and now heads to much weaker AL Central.  Let me at him.
15. Max Scherzer-Ace-like numbers here we come.  Finally put it all together in ridiculous second half last season.
16. Chris Sale-Again this is not an indictment on ability as Sale as talented as anyone but Verducci Rules violation and shoulder trouble in 2012 major worries.
17. Adam Wainwright-Would love to have Greinke-Wainwright combo right at the top of my rotation.  In fact I am going to make it happen.  So should you.  The cheapest ace in fantasy baseball.
18. Roy Halladay-The toughest call of any top starter.  Could go either way after rough 2012.  Age is getting up there and stuff looked off last season.  Who knows.
19. Jordan Zimmerman-Needs to get the K's back up to elevate himself more but you can't argue with the other numbers.
20. Kris Medlen-Please don't make his draft price get out of hand.  Please don't let his draft price get out of hand.  Won me both Experts Leagues last season.
21. Yovani Gallardo-Every year I tell you the same thing and that is the fact Gallardo continues to be overrated with his ugly WHIP's and high walk rate.
22. Yu Darvish-Love the strikeouts but Japanese pitchers have historically been worse their second go-round in the majors.
23. Jake Peavy-Reclaimed his status in fantasy baseball with a better than you think 2012.  Can't count on him staying healthy again though.
24. Johnny Cueto-Lack of K's don't get too me excited but the numbers have been great the last two seasons.
25. Mat Latos-Bascially matched his 2011 numbers last season which takes out the guesswork in what he will provide.  Pitches terrible in April though so be careful there.
26. Ian Kennedy-Not the ace he was in 2011 but also not as bad as he looked in 2012.  Split the difference between the two.
27. Matt Moore-Pitched like an ace in the second half as he figured out his pitching in the majors thing.  High ceiling.
28. Aroldis Chapman-It is anyone's guess what could happen this season from the kid's arm.  All's I know is that the strikeouts will be immense.  Innings cap issues however.

29. R.A. Dickey-Going to Toronto is about as bad a ballpark destination for Dickey as opposed to winning his Cy Young Award in spacious Citi Field.  His numbers could skyrocket.
30. Jonathan Niese-Niese continues his ascent to possibly starting pitcher 2 status.  Lacks the top end K's to be anything more however.
31. Jarrod Parker-Nice rookie season for Parker who compiled a 3.47 ERA in a pennant race.  Like with Niese though, comes up a bit short in the K's.
32. Brandon Morrow-Was in the midst of a big time start to his 2012 season before yet more injuries.  His 2.96 ERA was inflated by a lucky BABIP though and drop in K rate was worrisome.
33. Jeff Samardzjia-BUSTOUT ALERT!  Could pull a Max Scherzer second half of 2012 this season.  Everything pointing to near-ace-like numbers.  Get him.
34. Marco Estrada-Big time strikeout potential and was a major asset in the second half.  Future looks bright if he maintains control
35. Mike Fiers-Right there with his teammate above as a high K guy who opened some eyes the second half of last season.  Interesting sleeper case.
36. Wade Miley-Not buying his 2012 numbers by any means.  BABIP was incredibly lucky as XFIP was mediocre.
37. A.J. Burnett-Going back to the NL was very good to Burnett who is back to being the pitcher he was with Miami without some strikeouts.
38. Josh Johnson-Long history of loving this guy but no more as his shoulder still hasn't been surgically repaired as recommended which showed up in his stuff looking much diminished last season.  Also going to Toronto never a good thing.
39. Hiroki Kuroda-Amazingly had his best season pitching in the AL East after spending his first five years with the Dodgers.  Has never had an ERA over 4.00 in his career.
40. Homer Bailey-Improving and finally seems to be figuring things out.  Could take another step up and turn a nice profit this season. 
41. Dan Haren-There is a trend here of former aces in this region who are coming off disgusting seasons.  Add Haren to this group as back issues have robbed him of velocity and confidence.  Stands a solid shot of rebounding in Washington though and is worth a look now due to his depressed draft price.
42. Tim Lincecum-There is the chance Lincecum could end up in the bullpen and his velocity continues to decrease amid legitimate worries his arm is shot after heavy usage at a young age.  Mark Prior anyone?
43. Jon Lester-The numbers were awful and he too dealt with diminished velocity after heavy usage early in his career.  Unlike the guy before him however, Lester was unlucky with his BABIP and had an XFIP under 4.00.
44. Ryan Dempster-Can't get too excited about Dempster in Boston.  Terrible free agent destination to say the least.
45. Shaun Marcum-Good landing spot for Marcum with the Mets and there is no denying how solid he can pitch when healthy.  Unfortunately health is elusive for the guy.
46. Phil Hughes-Wins games and ERA not horrendous but that's about all there is to say.
47. Johan Santana-Proved he could still be a very good starter the first half of 2012 with a K/IP and a no-hitter but wheels came off completely in the second half as more health woes cropped up.  Draft him for April, May, and June.
48. Jeremy Hellickson-The luckiest pitcher in the game the last two seasons.  Walks too many guys, lacks strikeouts, and pitches in the awful AL East.  No way he sees an ERA in the 3.10 range again.
49. Tommy Milone-Clearly pitched well down the stretch for the A's last season but lack of strikeouts makes him a deeper league option.
50. Matt Garza-Wanted to put Garza higher as his strikeout stuff is very nice but elbow woes make him a major risk.
51. C.J. Wilson-Was not the pitcher he was in his BABIP-inflated 2011 as Wilson usually has high WHIP's due to walks.  Also saw a spike in home runs last season which is a worry as he hits his mid-30's.
52. Chris Carpenter-Lots of mileage on this arm and should be picked only as an SP 5.
53. Matt Harrison-Hey I can't argue with the very good stats the last two seasons but his woeful K rate keeps him only for non-innings capped formats.
54. Mike Minor-Be sure you leave a spot for this emerging talent during the middle portion of your draft.  Did a Kris Medlen-lite turnaround the second half of last season.
55. Doug Fister-Same story with Fister as it is with Harrison.  Good ERA but he comes up short in strikeouts.
56. Anibal Sanchez-He goes back to Detroit which is not too exciting.  Decent power guy but would have been more interesting in the National League.
57. Tim Hudson-Still pitching good but getting up there in age.  Back barking as well.
58. James McDonald-Was a revelation in the first half and bombed in the second which means you split the two and that is his outlook for the upcoming season.
59. Ryan Vogelsong-Another guy who is pitching above his advanced stats.  Now 35 years old, a dropoff is coming quick.
60. Tommy Hanson-What a fall this guy has had.  History of shoulder problems sapping his stuff.
61. Jason Vargas-Start him at home and bench him on the road.
62. Chris Capuano-Sell him during the summer when his stuff turns sour.

63. Lance Lynn-Yes the strikeouts were tremendous but Lynn has a ridiculous amount of luck in the first half and than typically hit the floor in the second when that corrected itself.  A Verducci Rules violator as well.
64. Edwin Jackson-Jackson is a guy who is a classic number 5 starter.  He won't win you a league but he won't hurt you either.
65. Chris Tillman-Finally lived up to some of the hype the second half of 2012.  Division makes us very wary though.
66. Bud Norris-Love the K's but Norris won't win any games and his WHIP's are a detriment. 
67. Paul Maholm-Has had some Tim Hudson-like seasons lately but in innings-capped leagues he is not a good buy.
68. Kyle Lohse-Hey the guy was right there in the Cy Young voting but he also was lucky with his advanced numbers.  Guys who strike out so few batters as a major risk.
69. Brett Anderson-Live sleeper.  We can't put him any higher due to constant injury concerns but Anderson showed in his cameo last season he can still be an asset.
70. Andrew Cashner-Major potential here but Cashner has to show he can be durable enough to start.
71. Jason Hammel-Was opening eyes with his K/IP start to 2012 but again injuries ruined him, 
72. Wei-Yin Chen-Did a very nice job in his first season in the States and could improve.  Sneaky K play.
73. Wandy Rodriguez-Has been a useful fifth starter but history of elbow trouble leaves him in that realm.
74. Ervin Santana-As annoying a player as there is in the game due to his rapid inconsistency.
75. Dan Straily-Struck out a boatload of guys in the minors.  Looks like this season's Mike Fiers.
76. Ross Detweiler-Another Washington pitcher whose ballpark makes him look better than he really is.  You won't get many punchouts here.
77. Shelby Miller-Watch him in the spring as a potential sleeper with K upside.
78. Zach Wheeler-Won't be up until June at the earlier but than run to the wire and get this future ace.
79. Dylan Bundy-Same as the above.
80. Trevor Bauer-Walks were awful in his debut last season and questions about poor attitude muddle this picture.

There you have it.  As always let us hear your thoughts on this topic.





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